On a macro level, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen recently pointed out in response to media questions that the Federal Reserve may start a rate-cutting cycle before autumn, no later than September. This statement slightly differs from the market's previous cautious judgments and enhances expectations for an earlier arrival of accommodative policies.
In the United States, another significant development comes from the congressional legislative process. On July 1, the U.S. Senate passed a new bill involving large-scale tax cuts and spending by a vote of 51 to 50. With the vote being evenly split, Vice President Harris cast the deciding vote, allowing the bill to pass. This bill has become a core part of Trump's 'economic reconstruction blueprint.'
Meanwhile, the SEC is collaborating with several cryptocurrency trading platforms to promote the establishment of unified ETF listing standards. According to informed reporter Eleanor Terrett, once the new regulations are enacted, qualified cryptocurrency asset ETFs may bypass the lengthy 19b-4 approval process and complete listing within 75 days through S-1 filings. Although there are currently no specific standards, the industry generally believes that market capitalization, trading depth, and liquidity will become core evaluation dimensions.
Additionally, the divergence between Musk and Trump over the bill has become more public. Trump issued a strong response, while Musk appeared somewhat passive, considering that his company's projects heavily rely on national resource support, his bargaining chips in the current game may be somewhat diminished.
On-chain data shows that despite frequent fluctuations, the market does not exhibit obvious panic sentiments. The turnover rate remains low, reflecting relatively stable investor sentiment.
Overall, Bitcoin is still fluctuating within a range, and most players believe that the 'Trump vs. Biden' contest will not bring substantial risks, but rather are full of expectations for the 'Big Beautiful Bill.' $93,000 to $98,000 remains the strongest support level, while $103,000 to $107,500 serves as a newly formed support range. Although it attracts many short-term players, its stability still needs observation.#比特币走势分析