Master discusses hot topics:
As the liquidity of long and short positions in the contract market piled up over the weekend, the focus has also arrived. The liquidity of shorts has clearly increased in the past two days, and the positions are very close, basically all high-leverage short-term players, which means they want to bet on a small pullback and then exit.
Meanwhile, the bulls are relatively rational, concentrating around 83K to 85K, with an average leverage of only 5 times. This also indicates that they want to pick up cheap coins, not come to gamble.
And the key now is whether these high-position shorts can be cleared all at once? If the U.S. stock market doesn't collapse tonight and both sides push a bit, then the big coin may rush into the upper liquidation zone, starting to harvest short positions of short-term, medium-term, and even medium-long term.
If cleaned out properly, the price may directly surge to 113K, and even reaching 115K is not a dream. But the reality is that the spot premium is still falling, and if the market really relies on short covering to support it, the spot premium may drop below the zero axis.
My current thought is that if the market truly explodes, I will follow along for another round. But above 113K, I won't take any risks; if the market suddenly experiences a significant drop in spot premium but the price doesn't fall, we need to be cautious about whether a rat trading scheme has come back in. Previously, whether it was in the Middle East or during the tariff war, it was always played like this, with needles poking but never cleaning out completely.
Returning to the market, the big coin has confirmed the support at 106500 and has been moving upward this morning. If it breaks through 109K, we will see if it can stabilize; if it really breaks through, the upper space will open up.
But if it surges and is then knocked down, we need to look back and see if 106500 can hold. Once this level is broken, the trend may directly turn weak, leading to daily level oscillation downward. The monthly line is also close to closing; as long as it closes above 105K, the structure still leans bullish.
Additionally, the wave of new funds on June 23 has not yet exited and does not seem like accumulation but rather preparation for the above shorts' liquidation. If it were accumulation, how could the main force not wash the floor? This upward surge looks more like a quick run followed by a retreat.
Master observes the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 110200
First resistance level: 109000
Support level reference:
Second support level: 107700
First support level: 106700
The big coin is currently forming a bullish flag pattern in the short term and has already broken through the upper boundary of the downward channel, continuing its upward trend. Since breaking above the channel's upper boundary, a bullish outlook can be maintained in the short term.
The 20-day moving average trend support rebound logic at the 4-hour level suggests that the bullish outlook can still be maintained in the short term. The key resistance encountered during the current rebound is around 109K, which coincides with the descending trend line and previous highs, presenting strong pressure.
If the coin price retraces to the previous high of 107.7K, it would be a reasonable adjustment, and we can accumulate long positions in batches; the probability of retesting 110K is also increasing.
From the current stage, the probability of testing the first resistance at 109K remains high. A short-term pullback may occur at 109K, and it is necessary to watch for any effective adjustment opportunities.
If 109K can be broken with increased volume, we can expect a retest of 110K. If the price breaks through 109K and stabilizes within the range of 109 to 109.2K, the upward trend will continue.
The first support at 107.7K is the key support level maintaining the upward structure, and it is recommended to observe whether it effectively halts the decline in conjunction with the 20-day moving average on the 4-hour chart.
If the support at 107.7K and the 20-day moving average is broken, further adjustment possibilities should be considered, with the range of 106.7K to 107K serving as a reference for short-term low long positions.
June 30 Master’s wave period plan:
Long entry reference: Accumulate long positions in the range of 106700-107700, target: 109000-110200
Short entry reference: Not applicable for now
