The geopolitical tension is heating up again — and traders are betting big on a major global choke point getting blocked.
📈 Polymarket Odds Surge
After Trump’s$TRUMP confirmed airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz shot up to 52% by year-end. Just days ago, it was sitting at 33%.
By June 30, the chance sits at 40% — up from 14%! 🔥
🛢 Why It Matters:
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s oil artery — over 20 million barrels/day pass through it.
If Iran seals it off?
👉 Expect oil to spike to $120–$130 per barrel (JPMorgan forecast)
👉 Stagflation fears could rattle the global economy
👉 Risk assets, including crypto, could get shaky
🪙 $BTC ? Still Chillin’
Surprisingly, Bitcoin is calm, trading above $100K, holding its sideways range. No panic — yet. 😴
> "The bully of the Middle East needs to make peace."
— Trump$TRUMP , post-strike statement
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🧠 My Take:
If Hormuz closes, oil soars, inflation jumps — and Bitcoin might finally move. Keep eyes on the next Polymarket bets.
💬 What do YOU think — is this just noise, or a real storm brewing?
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