1. Core Concept Optimization

Market Essence: Probability Game

  • Correct Thinking: Trading is a Repeated Game of 'Positive Expectation', Combining Win Rate with Risk-Reward Ratio through Technical Analysis, Capital Management, and Emotional Control for Long-Term Positive Returns.

  • Correcting Misconceptions: Avoid 'Technical Universalism' (e.g., Trusting a Single Indicator) or 'News Determinism' (e.g., Blindly Following News).

Patient Waiting: Only Trade High Certainty Opportunities

  • Correct Thinking:


    Being Flat is a Proactive Strategy, Only Open Positions During Technical Patterns (e.g., EMA Breakouts, FVG Fill), Liquidity Resonance (e.g., Institutional Stop Loss Areas).

Abandon Ambiguous 'Mid-Point Prices', Focus on Key Levels (Support/Resistance, Trend Lines).

  • Correcting Misconceptions: Frequent Trading (Especially 'Churning' in Sideways Markets) is a Major Cause of Losses.

2. Trading System Optimization

  1. Technical Analysis: Simplify Tools, Focus on Core Logic

Correct Tool Combination:

Trend Determination: EMA (150/200 Period) + Vegas Channel (Multi-Period Moving Average Combination).

Key Levels: FVG (Price Imbalance Area), OB (Institutional Order Block), Previous High/Low Points.

Signal Verification: Candlestick Patterns (Engulfing, Hammer, Pin Bar) + Volume Confirmation.

Correcting Misconceptions: Avoid Overlapping Too Many Indicators (e.g., Using MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands Simultaneously), Leading to Conflicting Signals.

  1. Risk Management: Scientific Capital Allocation

Single Trade Risk: ≤2% of Total Capital, Dynamically Adjust Stop Loss Using ATR (Average True Range).

Risk-Reward Ratio: At Least 1:2, Move Stop Loss to Breakeven After Profits to Protect Capital.

Diversify Risks: Avoid Heavy Positions in Single Assets, Hedge Across Assets (e.g., BTC, ETH, US Stocks).

Correcting Misconceptions: Holding Losing Positions, Averaging Down on Floating Losses, Closing Profits Too Early ('Cutting Profits').

  1. Trend Trading: Go with the Trend Rather than Predicting

Bullish Trend: Only Long or Observe, Enter on Retracement to Support Levels (e.g., EMA, FVG).

Bearish Trend: Only Short or Observe, Enter on Retracement to Resistance Levels (e.g., Liquidity Zones, Previous Highs).

Correcting Misconceptions: Buying the Dip or Selling the Top Against the Trend, Trusting 'Prices Have Fallen/Risen Too Much'.

3. Psychological and Behavioral Optimization

  1. Emotional Management: Three Principles for Rational Decision-Making

Principle 1: Do Not Add to Losing Trades, Do Not Increase Position on Winning Trades (Avoid 'Winner's Curse').

Principle 2: Write a Plan Before Trading (Entry Points, Stop Loss, Targets), Prohibit Modifications During Trading.

Principle 3: Analyze Trading Records with a 'Spectator's Perspective' During Daily Review, Isolate Emotional Influence.

  1. Cognitive Improvement: From 'Prediction' to 'Response'

The Market is Unpredictable, but Can Be Responded to Through Rules (e.g., 'Follow Breakouts, Stop Loss on False Breakouts').

Accepting Losses as Trading Costs, Pursuing Long-Term Probability Advantages.

Correcting Misconceptions: Pursuing '100% Win Rate' or 'Perfect Trading', Leading to Over-Optimization of Systems.

4. Deepening Understanding of Institutional Behavior and Liquidity Logic

  1. Liquidity Traps: Identify and Utilize

  2. Institutional Techniques:

False Breakout: Briefly Breaking Previous High/Low, Triggering Retail Stop Losses and Then Reversing.

Liquidity Hunting: Create Volatility in Dense Stop Loss Areas (e.g., Options Strike Price, Historical High Points).

  • Response Strategy:

    Open Position Against the Trend in Liquidity Areas (e.g., Shorting in Long Stop Loss Zones).

Avoid chasing positions at 'Obvious Trap Levels' (e.g., Sudden Rises or Falls during Asian Session).

  1. Data Assistance: Utilizing Liquidation Information

  2. Correct Application:

Focus on Dense Liquidation Levels Announced by Exchanges (Long/Short Explosion Points) as Reference for Reversal Signals.

Combine Technical Patterns (e.g., Divergence, Engulfing) to Validate Liquidation Points.

5. Review: Extract Patterns from Failures

  • Record Elements: Date, Variety, Direction, Position Size, Opening Reason, Stop Loss/Take Profit, Result, Emotional State.

  • Analysis Focus:

Profitable Trades: Were They Executed as Planned? Can They Be Repeated?

Losing Trades: Did They Violate Rules? How to Avoid?

Summary: The Essence of Trading is 'Rules Overcoming Human Nature'

  • Correct Direction: Simple System (1-2 Core Indicators) + Strict Discipline (Stop Loss/Take Profit) + Continuous Learning.

  • Ultimate Goal: Transform Trading into a 'Mechanical Probability Advantage Game' Through Long-Term Consistency, Rather Than Relying on Luck or Intuition.


#交易认知 #交易哲学 #交易训练