#美国国债 Debt and Credit Risk Intensification: The total amount of U.S. government debt has exceeded $36.2 trillion, with a debt/GDP ratio reaching 123%, far exceeding the international warning line (60%). The three major international rating agencies (S&P, Fitch, Moody's) have all downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating to Aa1, reflecting concerns about fiscal sustainability. The fiscal deficit rate is expected to reach 7.3%, with interest payments becoming a burden for the government, further pushing up long-term U.S. Treasury yields.

Market Volatility and Yield Differentiation: In April, Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" policy triggered severe fluctuations in U.S. Treasuries, with the 10-year yield experiencing its highest weekly increase since 2001 (reaching 4.48%), followed by a decline due to the policy pause. Long-term yields are driven by inflation expectations (CPI could reach 5.3%) and supply pressures (the Treasury may accelerate bond issuance), while short-term rates have declined due to economic weakness, with a clear trend of yield curve steepening.

Divergence in Investor Behavior: Foreign official institutions have increased their holdings of long-term U.S. Treasuries (e.g., Japan's holdings have risen for four consecutive months), but private investors have accelerated selling, with China's holdings dropping to $757 billion, a recent low. Hedge fund "basis trading" has exacerbated market liquidity pressures, leading to fluctuations in long-term rates.

Policy and External Shocks: The path of Federal Reserve rate cuts is uncertain (possibly starting in September), and the extension of Trump's tax cuts has intensified fiscal pressure, compounded by geopolitical conflicts (such as the situation in Israel and Iran) that undermine the safe-haven attributes of U.S. Treasuries, leading to increased market skepticism about their status as a safe asset.

Looking ahead, U.S. Treasury yields may remain high and volatile (10-year range 3.5%-5.2%), with a potential surge in inflation and a peak in debt issuance in the third quarter possibly pushing rates to 5%, but a rate cut in the fourth quarter may relieve pressure. Investors should be wary of fluctuations caused by debt credit risks and policy reversals.