#BTC $ETH

After a classic Fake Breakout last night, the F.O.M.O short is very tense, however, to reach that fragile golden zone, MM will still drive sideways slowly. I think it will only be dangerous when ETH drops below 2k2, which is after the large push from the whale on 8/5.

🧠 Today's scenario prediction

Scenario Description Probability

⚠️ Re-test 2360 then slightly bounce RSI oversold, forming a double bottom ~40%

🔼 Retrace to 2480–2500 then get pushed down meets the old short accumulation zone ~35%

🔽 Break 2360, drop to 2300 if the psychological level of 2400 cannot be held ~25%

✅ Today's strategy:

If Long: wait for a retest of 2360–2380, SL < 2355. Target 2450–2480 is reasonable.

If Short: the ideal zone is 2480–2500 if the price has a weak bounce + low volume.

If today there is no confirming volume and it closes below 2380, then the bounce will fail → switch to a downtrend confirming a strong decline is very likely to plunge to 2280 due to lack of cash flow and support. The model is just a model, but Volume and cash flow cannot be faked, my friends.

If staying out: watch for a trap breakout to short with low volume.

There are many Fomo Shorts above, I lean more towards Long. Or just sweep both ends and go down for a cool down 😄