On a macro level, David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, recently stated that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2025. He analyzed that if inflation rises due to tariff policies, relief might not come until 2026. “Economic growth is expected to slow next year, and inflation may gradually decline, so the Federal Reserve may adjust its interest rate policy in a timely manner.” Kelly reminded players, “Don’t expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates quickly in the short term; they seem more inclined to wait and see.”
In the United States, the Arizona Senate passed the HB 2324 bill with a vote of 16 to 14 and submitted it for review by the House of Representatives. This bill allows the state government to use criminally seized digital assets to establish a digital asset reserve fund, marking an important step for the application of cryptocurrency in the state’s economy.
Meanwhile, social media platform X is accelerating its transformation into the financial services sector. CEO Linda Yaccarino stated that users will be able to invest or trade on the X platform “soon,” in pursuit of Musk's ambitious goal of creating an “all-in-one application.” X also plans to launch its digital wallet and peer-to-peer payment service X Money this year and has partnered with Visa. Additionally, X is exploring the launch of its own branded credit or debit card, which could hit the market as early as this year.
In terms of cryptocurrency, according to Forbes, the shareholding of Trump’s World Liberty Financial has dropped from 60% to 40% over the past 11 days, a low-key adjustment that has raised speculation about possible behind-the-scenes maneuvers by his team.
In terms of geopolitics, the Middle East conflict has caused oil prices to continue rising, with U.S. WTI crude oil prices approaching $76 per barrel and Brent crude nearing $79 per barrel. Powell believes that the impact of geopolitical conflicts on energy prices is a short-term fluctuation that will not significantly affect inflation expectations, but players remain highly vigilant about rising oil prices. Recently, Trump stated that he would decide within two weeks whether to negotiate with Iran, which the market views as a signal of pressure on Iran. On the other hand, after being bombed in Kyiv, Putin expressed a willingness to negotiate with Ukraine, and Ukraine's response has become the focus.
Overall, influenced by the U.S. stock market holiday, recent trading volume and liquidity have been low, with market activity close to weekend levels. Despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts, early players remain stable, with no significant sell-offs observed. From the chip distribution perspective, a strong support level has formed in the $93,000 to $98,000 range, but chips have rapidly accumulated in the $100,500 to $105,000 range, especially in the $104,000 to $105,000 range where over 1.2 million BTC are held. If chips continue to concentrate, the market may face pressure for directional selection. In the short term, Bitcoin is expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern.
