In the early morning of the 19th, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision. Recently, the market has been quite volatile, rising and falling, and many people may be worried: if there is no interest rate cut this time, will the market continue to decline?

First, let's look at the big trend — are we currently in a rate-hiking phase or a rate-cutting cycle?

The Federal Reserve began raising rates in 2022, increasing the rate from 0.25% to 5.5% in a year and a half, and only started the first rate cut in September 2024. So far, there have been three cuts, the most recent one being in December last year, and the current rate is maintained at 4.5%, unchanged for six months.

In terms of pace, it took 18 months to raise rates, while the rate cuts have only been ongoing for 9 months and have only decreased by 1 percentage point, both in terms of time and magnitude not being significant. The Federal Reserve and Chairman Powell publicly express a hawkish stance (emphasizing cautious rate cuts), but let's not forget that during the rate hikes in 2022, they were also dovish in their rhetoric (saying they wouldn't raise by much), yet rates continued to rise.

Therefore, the key is not what they say, but that their direction is set — since the rate-cutting cycle has started, they will not easily abandon it halfway. This point is more important than what is said in the short term.

As for whether there will be a rate cut in the early morning of the 19th? Based on the data, the likelihood is low, but the market has already anticipated this, and the trends of the past two months have reflected the result of 'not cutting for now.' So even if rates remain unchanged tomorrow, the market is unlikely to crash.

Moreover, the overall direction is a rate-cutting cycle; just because they don't cut this time doesn't mean they won't next time — the probability of a rate cut in the July meeting is likely to increase. Therefore, regardless of the outcome tomorrow, I believe it is a short-term bearish and long-term bullish scenario, skewed positively for the next 1-2 months. #美联储何时降息？