According to a comprehensive analysis of the current market environment and the Federal Reserve's policy stance, the most likely choice for this interest rate decision is to maintain interest rates at the current level. However, it is crucial to pay close attention to the hawkish signals conveyed by the policy statement and the dot plot. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December 2024. Recent economic data shows a slowdown in demand, but core inflation remains above the 2% target, and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are driving up oil prices, exacerbating inflation risks. Trump's tariff policy has raised import costs, potentially triggering 'stagflation,' and the Federal Reserve needs more time to assess the impact of its policies. The March dot plot indicates an expectation of two rate cuts in 2025; however, influenced by tariffs and geopolitical risks, the current dot plot may be adjusted to indicate only one rate cut, or even suggest that rate cuts may begin later. JPMorgan believes that the Federal Reserve may convey a cautious stance by lowering its economic growth expectations and raising its inflation expectations. The dollar and gold serve as hedges against macroeconomic uncertainties, while U.S. Treasury bonds capture changes in the curve, requiring strict position control. Volatility is highest within 30 minutes after the decision.