#美国国债 The US national debt has surpassed 37 trillion dollars, with 25% of tax revenue used to pay interest. This structural crisis is profoundly reshaping the logic of the crypto market. As a cross-validator of macro liquidity and on-chain data, I believe that the debt issue has a dual-edged impact on crypto assets, necessitating a layered analysis of its transmission paths while adjusting strategies in line with the current market state. The monetization of debt dilutes the value of the dollar, and Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins becomes a natural inflation hedge. If the US were to allocate 1% of the $7.6 trillion stimulus funds since 2020 into Bitcoin, it could bring an incremental $76 billion, potentially driving prices up by 5%-15%. During the debt ceiling crisis in 2021, Bitcoin surged 23% in one week; after the recent breach of 37 trillion, BTC trading volume surged by 15% within 24 hours, with prices exceeding $95,000.

The debt crisis is not a singular event but a slow-moving variable lasting decades. The true winners are not those who predict the tides but the fishermen who learn to catch fish in the fluctuations:

Short-term: closely monitor the subscription rate of US Treasury auctions and the inflow of on-chain stablecoins. If the 30-year US Treasury fails to sell + USDC issuance in one week > $1 billion, then increase BTC holdings;

Long-term: bet on Bitcoin becoming a 'fiscal collapse option'—if the US debt/GDP exceeds 150%, the BTC/gold ratio will evolve towards 2:1.

When a quarter of tax revenue is used to pay interest, the fiat currency system is already surrendering to blockchain. Our only choice is: to rebuild trust in code and seek absolutes in mathematics.