February Red

#剥头皮策略 My scalping strategy is centered around 'Liquidity Gap Sniping' - capturing a price difference profit of 0.3%-1.2% within 1-5 minutes by utilizing the instantaneous imbalance of the exchange order book.
Three types of high-probability scalping opportunities
1. Liquidity Gap
Characteristics: The order book thins out before major news releases
Operation: Place limit orders just outside support/resistance levels
At the moment the data is released, market orders sweep in, earning a 0.5-1% fluctuation
2. Dealer's Fake Moves
Identification: A large order suddenly appears on the sell side, but Level 2 shows that the single order volume continues to decrease, and on-chain whales have not replenished their accounts at the exchange
Reverse Operation: Enter the market in the opposite direction when a large order appears, with a stop loss set 0.3% outside the thickness of the fake order
Scalping is a game of probabilities; a single profit may only be enough to buy a cup of coffee, but with an average of 50 trades a day, one can accumulate a return of 8-15%*.

#美国国债 The US national debt has surpassed 37 trillion dollars, with 25% of tax revenue used to pay interest. This structural crisis is profoundly reshaping the logic of the crypto market. As a cross-validator of macro liquidity and on-chain data, I believe that the debt issue has a dual-edged impact on crypto assets, necessitating a layered analysis of its transmission paths while adjusting strategies in line with the current market state. The monetization of debt dilutes the value of the dollar, and Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins becomes a natural inflation hedge. If the US were to allocate 1% of the $7.6 trillion stimulus funds since 2020 into Bitcoin, it could bring an incremental $76 billion, potentially driving prices up by 5%-15%. During the debt ceiling crisis in 2021, Bitcoin surged 23% in one week; after the recent breach of 37 trillion, BTC trading volume surged by 15% within 24 hours, with prices exceeding $95,000.
The debt crisis is not a singular event but a slow-moving variable lasting decades. The true winners are not those who predict the tides but the fishermen who learn to catch fish in the fluctuations:
Short-term: closely monitor the subscription rate of US Treasury auctions and the inflow of on-chain stablecoins. If the 30-year US Treasury fails to sell + USDC issuance in one week > $1 billion, then increase BTC holdings;
Long-term: bet on Bitcoin becoming a 'fiscal collapse option'—if the US debt/GDP exceeds 150%, the BTC/gold ratio will evolve towards 2:1.
When a quarter of tax revenue is used to pay interest, the fiat currency system is already surrendering to blockchain. Our only choice is: to rebuild trust in code and seek absolutes in mathematics.

#波段交易策略 My swing trading strategy core is "Three Cycles Resonance + On-chain Verification"**, integrating macro liquidity, on-chain smart money movements, and technical breakout signals. The holding period is usually 2-6 weeks, targeting to capture 15-40% swing profits.
Federal Reserve balance sheet growth rate
Changes in total supply of stablecoins
Weekly net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs
When all three are synchronously positive, only go long and not short; otherwise, reduce positions or go short.

April 2025 ETH swing trading
Federal Reserve pauses balance sheet reduction + weekly net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs of $1.2 billion
Top 10 on-chain ETH wallets increase holdings by 4.2% weekly + Lido staking volume exceeds 12 million ETH
ETH/BTC exchange rate weekly line stabilizes at support level of 0.048
Swing trading is not about prediction, but about reflection. When the macro warm winds blow, on-chain footprints appear, and technical structures confirm, the market is already shouting direction at you; you just need to bend down and pick up the wallet. Refuse the impulse of "feeling it will rise," use three-dimensional signal cross-validation, and make swing trading a replicable cash machine.

The transformation of Elon Musk's X platform into a 'super app' is a milestone event in the fusion of technology and finance. Musk has publicly supported DOGE multiple times, Tesla accepts DOGE for product payments, and the X platform has previously integrated Bitcoin's Lightning Network for tipping. The leaked X Money code from May 2025 shows reserved interfaces for cryptocurrencies, and industry insiders speculate that it may initially support DOGE or BTC for creator tips. If the U.S. 'GENIUS Act' is passed, it will clarify the rules for stablecoin issuance, and Musk could take the opportunity to launch a compliant 'X Currency.' The 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' policy promoted by the Trump administration further paves the way for crypto payments.
In the short term (2025-2026), there may be a small-scale pilot using DOGE to test regulations, and whether it can be fully integrated in the long term depends on the implementation of the 'GENIUS Act' and the progress of obtaining global licenses.
A one-stop solution for social networking, payments, and investments without the need to switch apps, emulating WeChat's successful model. Referring to X's previous strategy of not charging any fees for Bitcoin tips, if continued into X Money, it could crush traditional payment providers like PayPal.
X's ambition is to become the WeChat of the Western world, but it needs to solve two major paradoxes: Musk once envisioned a blockchain Twitter charging '0.1 DOGE per tweet,' but it was shelved due to performance issues—if X Money is fully centralized, it will deviate from the original intent of the crypto community. The accumulation of payment, social, and investment functions may lead to a bloated experience, and it needs to learn from WeChat's flexible architecture of splitting 'service modules.'
If X can integrate DOGE payment pilots, AI risk control, and low-fee cross-border networks, it could create a new species of social finance; otherwise, it risks becoming just another payment tool.

#加密概念美股 Circle's stock price surged dramatically after the passage of the 'GENIUS Act' and the explosive performance of its IPO, supported by real demand but also mixed with short-term emotional speculation. The IPO subscription ratio exceeded 20 times, with the issue price raised from $24-26 to $31, and the amount raised increased from $624 million to $1.054 billion, indicating active allocation of institutional funds. BlackRock not only subscribed to 10% of the shares but also collaborated with Circle to develop an on-chain fund exchange system, forming deep business synergies. 90% of USDC reserves are managed by BlackRock, with daily audits being transparent, and the 'GENIUS Act' clarifies its 'digital cash' status, clearing obstacles for traditional financial institutions to enter. The stock price increased sixfold within 10 days of listing, with market capitalization skyrocketing to $21.7 billion, but net profit in Q1 2025 was only $65 million. If interest rates decline, its model, which relies 99% on interest income, will be impacted. ARK Invest sold $96.5 million worth of stocks before the act's passage, accounting for 14% of its holdings, signaling profit-taking. The first-day increase of 234% triggered a trading halt, and retail investors chasing high prices could be hit by 'lock-up period release selling pressure'.
Short-term: Circle's surge overspends policy expectations, and caution is needed for profit adjustments due to interest rate cuts in Q3. Attention should be paid to the details of the House's amendments to the 'GENIUS Act'; if restrictions on banks issuing stablecoins are loosened, Paxos and Figure will benefit.
Long-term: A truly sustainable crypto IPO must simultaneously meet: strong cash flow, low regulatory substitute risks, and irreversible integration with traditional finance. Accordingly, Kraken and Fireblocks have greater potential to withstand cycles.

#我的交易风格 Trading style is indeed the core framework of the investment system. My style can be summarized as "macro-driven reflexive arbitrage"—integrating Soros's reflexivity theory, Keynes's beauty contest, and the unique volatility of the cryptocurrency market.
The cryptocurrency market experiences a temporal and spatial mismatch between "macro liquidity" and "local liquidity". When the Federal Reserve's policy shifts, BTC/ETH often leads the reaction in U.S. stocks, while altcoins lag by 2-3 weeks.
In December 2024, the Federal Reserve hinted at pausing interest rate hikes, execution path:
• D1: Long BTC breaks $105,000
• D5: ETH/BTC exchange rate falls to 0.048, reverse to long ETH
• D14: Increase position in SOL when SOL/ETH breaks 0.02, total return 42%.

The passage of the "GENIUS Act" marks a historic breakthrough in the regulation of the cryptocurrency industry in the United States. If it ultimately becomes law, its impact will radiate across the cryptocurrency ecosystem, traditional finance, and the global monetary landscape, with the role of stablecoins upgrading from a 'trading tool' to the 'core of financial infrastructure'.
- Compliant stablecoins will dominate the market, and USDT faces a survival crisis;
- The surge in demand for U.S. Treasuries suppresses short-term yields, providing liquidity support for risk assets.
- Stablecoins upgrade from a 'gateway to cryptocurrency' to a vehicle for the digitalization strategy of the dollar, becoming the 'risk-free interest rate anchor' for DeFi and the underlying infrastructure for cross-border payments;
- The integration of the cryptocurrency industry and traditional finance accelerates, with RWA, DeFi, and compliant exchanges emerging as the biggest winners.
If the bill is enacted, it will not only mark the end of regulatory compliance but also the starting point of the 'on-chain dollar empire'—it will reshape capital flows, challenge the hegemony of banks, and force the world to consider: When the dollar dons the cloak of code, will the end of finance be open, or another form of monopoly?

According to a comprehensive analysis of the current market environment and the Federal Reserve's policy stance, the most likely choice for this interest rate decision is to maintain interest rates at the current level. However, it is crucial to pay close attention to the hawkish signals conveyed by the policy statement and the dot plot. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December 2024. Recent economic data shows a slowdown in demand, but core inflation remains above the 2% target, and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are driving up oil prices, exacerbating inflation risks. Trump's tariff policy has raised import costs, potentially triggering 'stagflation,' and the Federal Reserve needs more time to assess the impact of its policies. The March dot plot indicates an expectation of two rate cuts in 2025; however, influenced by tariffs and geopolitical risks, the current dot plot may be adjusted to indicate only one rate cut, or even suggest that rate cuts may begin later. JPMorgan believes that the Federal Reserve may convey a cautious stance by lowering its economic growth expectations and raising its inflation expectations. The dollar and gold serve as hedges against macroeconomic uncertainties, while U.S. Treasury bonds capture changes in the curve, requiring strict position control. Volatility is highest within 30 minutes after the decision.

On June 14, 2025, the National Assembly of Vietnam passed the "Digital Technology Industry Law", which for the first time legally recognizes the status of crypto assets, categorizing digital assets into two types: "virtual assets" and "crypto assets", along with accompanying cybersecurity and anti-money laundering regulations. This move is not only a strategic action for Vietnam to exit the FATF 'grey list', but it may also become a catalyst for cryptocurrency compliance and innovation in Southeast Asia.
Previously, Vietnam only prohibited the use of cryptocurrencies as payment tools, but did not clarify the legality of transactions, leading to long-term policy uncertainty for investors. The new law grants legal status to crypto assets for the first time and establishes classification standards, providing operational guidelines for exchanges, developers, and users, which may attract compliant platforms like Coinbase and Binance to accelerate their layout.
The law mandates that crypto businesses comply with FATF standards, directly addressing Vietnam's concerns about being placed on the 'grey list'. If implemented effectively, it will enhance international capital trust and promote Vietnam to become a hub for anti-money laundering in Southeast Asia, forming regional cooperation with Singapore and Malaysia.
Vietnam's new law provides a reusable regulatory template for Southeast Asia through the "compliance anchor + industry linkage" strategy. If successfully implemented, Southeast Asia may form the following landscape by 2027:
- Market level: The number of cryptocurrency users increases to 120 million, accounting for 15% of the global total;
- Technology level: Vietnam leads in hardware security modules (HSM), Singapore provides compliance frameworks, and Indonesia focuses on DeFi applications.
"Vietnam's ambition is not only to embrace cryptocurrencies but also to redefine the regional power chain in the digital age" — its success or failure will determine whether Southeast Asia becomes the 'new frontier' for global cryptocurrency innovation or remains a dependency of Western technologies.

Trump Media's recent aggressive positioning in the Bitcoin space— including a $2.3 billion Bitcoin vault plan and a Truth Social Bitcoin ETF application—marks a deep binding of cryptocurrency with political power. This strategy could both accelerate mainstream institutional adoption and drag the market into the whirlpool of political games.
If the Truth Social Bitcoin ETF is approved, it will provide traditional investors with a low-threshold compliant investment tool, attracting conservative funds that typically do not engage with cryptocurrency. A similar effect was seen in early 2024 when institutional investors, such as Wisconsin pension funds, entered the Bitcoin market after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The Trump administration has paused the sale of 200,000 Bitcoins held by the U.S. government and has included them in a 'strategic reserve', likening it to gold's 'digital Fort Knox'. This official reserve stance may reinforce Bitcoin's positioning as 'digital gold' and encourage more sovereign funds or pension funds to follow suit.
If Trump Media successfully establishes a large-scale Bitcoin vault and promotes government spending on-chain, it will substantially enhance the application of cryptocurrency in payment, clearing, and other scenarios.
Trump Media's Bitcoin ambitions act as both a catalyst for mainstreaming and a powder keg for market volatility. In the short term, its political appeal may accelerate fund inflow; in the long term, the cryptocurrency market must avoid becoming a tool for partisan conflict in order to achieve sustainable mainstreaming. The real challenge lies in how to transform the 'Trump effect' into an institutional framework that can detach from the personal influence of political figures—such as Congress legislating clear reserve rules or the SEC establishing bipartisan standards for cryptocurrency asset classification. Otherwise, the 'politicization fate' of the crypto market may become its biggest obstacle to integration into the mainstream.

Hoskinson's proposal essentially aims to break the 'stablecoin dilemma' within the Cardano ecosystem, but the market panic and community division triggered by its execution path reveal the profound contradiction between decentralized governance and short-term interests. The market capitalization/TVL ratio of Cardano's stablecoins is only 9.65%, far below that of Ethereum and Solana, which hinders the development of DeFi applications. It involves utilizing a treasury of 140 million ADA to exchange for stablecoins like USDM to inject into the ecosystem, with a target annual yield of 5%-10%. Hoskinson's proposal directly addresses the fatal flaw of Cardano's ecosystem 'stablecoin anemia,' but converting 100 million dollars is like running on a tightrope high above—success would activate the heart of DeFi, while failure would plunge into the abyss of trust.

$ADA
If liquidity injection is successful, DeFi TVL could double, attracting developers and users. Diversifying staking yields enhances the practical value of ADA. Historical data shows that a sell-off of $3-5 billion can lead to a market cap drop of 15%-20%, while a $100 million sell-off may trigger a follow-on selling wave.
Overestimating market depth and underestimating emotional sensitivity. The community proposes to mint ADA collateralized stablecoins to avoid spot sell-offs while increasing liquidity.

The Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities, which triggered a massive market shock, is essentially the result of the resonance between geopolitical risks and the vulnerability of the cryptocurrency market. The Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities has escalated tensions in the Middle East, with Iran announcing its withdrawal from nuclear negotiations and closing its airspace, leading to a global risk-averse sentiment. Gold surged over $30 in a single day to $3420 per ounce, and crude oil skyrocketed over 9%, resulting in a sell-off of risk assets. As a high-beta risk asset, cryptocurrencies bore the brunt of the selling pressure, with BTC/ETH declines far exceeding traditional stock indices. In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused BTC to drop 15% in a single day, but it rebounded 23% within seven days. If this airstrike does not escalate into a full-blown war, panic sentiment may dissipate quickly. Large whale addresses are buying on dips, and the net outflow from exchanges has reached a new high since March, indicating long-term investors' willingness to buy the dip. This sharp decline is fundamentally a liquidity crisis triggered by a geopolitical black swan piercing the leverage bubble, but it does not mark the end of a bull market.

The Trump administration's unilateral imposition of tariffs with a 'take it or leave it' approach essentially weaponizes trade policy, with impacts that extend far beyond the economic sphere, directly affecting global market nerves and cryptocurrency sentiment.
The Trump administration ignored the WTO's most-favored-nation principle, imposing differentiated tariffs on over 100 countries, including allies. Canada imposed a 25% retaliatory tariff on $29.8 billion worth of U.S. goods, and the EU drafted a countermeasure list, sharply increasing the risk of a global trade war. American car manufacturers paused orders from China, while Japanese car manufacturers accelerated the transfer of production capacity to Southeast Asia. Mexico's auto exports to the U.S. account for 79%, and the 25% tariff led to a 15%-30% increase in the cost of the supply chain, ultimately passed on to consumers. The repeated actions of 'announce-suspend-partial exemption' regarding tariff policy in April led to a 9.5% single-day surge in the S&P 500, followed by severe fluctuations, causing the market to fall into 'decision fatigue'.
Trump's tariff 'nuclear bomb' is essentially the struggle of old hegemony against a multipolar world—it created global chaos in the short term but also accelerated the rise of value networks outside the dollar system. Investors need to face threefold realities:
1. Normalization of trade frictions: Allocate 10%-20% of assets in anti-inflation instruments.
2. Politicization of the crypto market: Pay attention to the progress of Trump's 'cryptocurrency strategic reserve,' as policy swings create trading opportunities.
3. Rise of on-chain economy: Under tariff barriers, USDC cross-border payment volume surged by 320%, with DeFi becoming a new infrastructure.
History proves: When protectionism builds walls, it is precisely the opportunity for decentralized protocols to break through. When traditional markets are mired in tariff bogs, the resilience of the crypto world may write the prologue to the next bull market.

#实用交易工具 "The moving average is the map, MACD is the accelerator, and RSI is the fuel gauge - but the steering wheel is always in your hands." When the three provide conflicting signals, reducing positions and observing is better than forcing trades.
In the crypto world, the movements of on-chain whales + the influence of macro events far surpass technical indicators. Usable indicators can improve win rates, but true Alpha comes from the synthesis of multidimensional information.

#常见交易错误 My bloody lessons from entering the crypto world, 70% loss of principal in ORDI in Q4 2023. ORDI surged 180% in a single day due to the Binance listing announcement, and I entered the market at a high of $45. Driven by FOMO, I ignored the RSI daily overbought and the signals of large whale sell-offs. I went long with 5x leverage on my entire position, without setting a stop-loss. ORDI's perpetual contract funding rate reached 0.3%/hour, and the conditions for a short squeeze became ripe. I overlooked that ORDI's fully diluted market cap had exceeded $1 billion without any actual ecological support. Blindly believed KOL's statement of 'bullish at $100'.
Ultimate advice for beginners: 1. Use a demo account to validate your 'get rich quick fantasy', 2. Avoid leverage in the first year; leverage is an accelerator of losses rather than a tool for profits. First, use spot trading to understand market fluctuations, then try ≤2x leverage.
The market specializes in dealing with all forms of disbelief—when you think 'this time is different', death has already raised the scythe. This phrase has now become my amulet.

#加密圆桌讨论 The recent discussion at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) crypto roundtable marks a significant shift in the global DeFi regulatory paradigm.
Comparing code to 'self-driving cars', it is argued that developers, like car manufacturers, should not be held accountable for third-party abuse. This position addresses the long-standing 'Tornado Cash dilemma' in the DeFi space—where the developers of this protocol were prosecuted for money laundering charges in 2023, causing panic in the open-source community. If code liability exemptions are realized, it would greatly unleash innovative potential.
Citing the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, it is believed that code constitutes expressive speech. However, this viewpoint has limitations: financial code directly involves asset transfer, which may exceed the realm of pure speech. SEC Commissioner Crenshaw warned, 'When code performs financial functions, freedom of speech cannot be a shield to evade investor protection.'
When the Federal Reserve's real-time settlement system connects directly to DeFi protocols, regulation will be forced to choose between 'control efficiency' and 'empowerment risk.' And Atkins' declaration may just press the fast forward button for this silent revolution: 'We should not instinctively fear the future.'

#交易手续费揭秘 My Practical Money-Saving Tips
For large transactions, use limit orders: On Binance VIP Level 0, the limit order fee is only 0.1%, and the taker fee is 0.2%
For small urgent orders, use market orders + Post Only: Check 'Post Only' to avoid being a passive taker, as Kraken Pro supports this feature
'The fees saved are the profits earned—In the crypto world, a continuous advantage of 0.1% can compound into an opportunity for wealth in five years.'

Nasdaq proposes to include XRP, SOL, ADA, and XLM in its cryptocurrency benchmark index. If approved by the SEC, this will significantly enhance the attention and accessibility of these altcoins among traditional investors, and have a structural impact on investment strategies. If the Hashdex ETF is approved for multi-asset allocation, traditional investors can directly hold exposure to altcoins through stock accounts, without the need to manage private keys or deal with on-chain transactions. Inclusion in the Nasdaq index means that the SEC indirectly recognizes the compliance of these assets, alleviating institutional concerns about their 'security nature'.
Expanding the Nasdaq index is a key step for altcoins to integrate into traditional finance, but it is necessary to distinguish between two types of opportunities:
1. Certainty Opportunity: XRP and SOL will receive continuous capital inflows, prioritized for allocation during pullbacks;
2. High Volatility Opportunity: ADA and XLM need to observe on-chain activity, suitable only for swing trading.

#加密安全须知 There is no absolutely secure wallet, only a layered defense system.
Ultimate Security Principles
1. Three no principles:
Do not click on unknown links (especially airdrops, customer service private messages)
Do not screenshot/transmit mnemonic phrases (physical medium is unique)
Do not be greedy for high returns and ignore contract audits (DefiLlama checks for vulnerabilities)
2. Isolation is key:
Trading wallet ≠ Storage wallet ≠ Authorization wallet
Create independent addresses for each scenario (such as Uniswap dedicated, NFT dedicated)
"Cold wallets are like Fort Knox, hot wallets are like wallets you carry—nobody would stuff all their wealth into their jeans pocket, yet in the Web3 world, most people are doing just that."