February Red

#BTC突破100K 比特币近期急速拉升并非偶然，而是多重宏观与微观因素共振的结果。美国比特币现货ETF连续18周净流入，2024年Q2日均买入超7,200 BTC，总持仓达826,000 BTC，其中贝莱德IBIT单只基金持仓超30万枚，碾压MicroStrategy的21.4万枚。传统资管巨头开始配置比特币ETF，养老金基金占比从2023年的0.3%升至2024年的5.7%，机构持仓周期从“季度级”转向“数年级”。当前交易所BTC存量仅230万枚，创2018年以来新低，ETF持续吸筹导致流动性枯竭，轻微买盘即可推高价格。若机构维持当前购买速度，2025年底交易所BTC将耗尽，引发流动性危机。
此番暴涨是机构建仓、货币政策失效、地缘避险三力驱动的必然结果，中长线上涨逻辑未破坏。然而，短线超买严重，需防范10万美元附近的技术回调。建议坚守现货，利用波动优化持仓成本，避免情绪化追涨杀跌。历史经验表明，牛市中的每次深蹲都是为了跳得更高。

#Stripe稳定币账户 Stripe launches stablecoin accounts in over 100 countries, marking the formal inclusion of stablecoins into the global payment infrastructure by traditional financial giants. This transformation not only reshapes cross-border transaction models but also reveals the evolution path of stablecoins from "cryptocurrency tools" to "a new pillar of global payments." The cost of cross-border payments using stablecoins is only 1/10 that of SWIFT, and settlement time has been reduced from 3-5 days to seconds. In countries with an annual inflation rate exceeding 50%, businesses use USDC as a reserve for operating funds to avoid the devaluation of local currency eating into profits. Payment giants like Stripe and PayPal integrate stablecoins, creating a two-way exchange channel between fiat and crypto assets. In Q1 2024, the transaction volume of USDC through traditional payment channels surged 320% year-on-year. Regulated stablecoins lower the threshold for corporate adoption, especially meeting anti-money laundering requirements for multinational companies. Businesses in countries like Russia and Iran use USDC for trade settlements with the UAE and India, circumventing dollar-dominated financial blockades. The African Free Trade Area plans to launch a stablecoin-based cross-border settlement system to replace the region's dollar-dependent payment network.

The current Bitcoin price of #BTC突破99K is approaching the key psychological and technical resistance level of $100,000, and the breakthrough of this milestone is influenced by multiple factors. Although the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, if Powell sends dovish signals, it may stimulate a rise in risk assets. Historical data shows that expectations of interest rate cuts often drive Bitcoin to break through key resistance levels. Trump mentioned reaching a significant trade agreement with 'respected nations,' which the market interprets as potentially easing geopolitical tensions and boosting risk appetite. Recent on-chain data indicates a significant increase in active addresses and whale trading volume, with MVRV returning to a healthy range, suggesting that large holders are accumulating positions to support price increases. The surge in open positions for $300,000 call options reflects strong market expectations for a breakthrough. If the price breaks through $100,000, it may trigger large-scale liquidations of short contracts, accelerating the rise. The current market is in a critical game period, and breaking through $100,000 requires the resonance of institutional funds and sentiment.

If the inflow speed of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. doubles, combined with the entry of sovereign funds and pensions, it could push the market cap of BTC to exceed $1 trillion. Under the global debt crisis and geopolitical conflicts, the demand for Bitcoin as a reserve asset in countries facing severe inflation will surge, forming the ultimate narrative of 'digital gold.' If the adoption rate of Bitcoin Layer 2 reaches over 10%, it may unlock payment and DeFi scenarios, enhancing on-chain economic activity. The current total market cap of the crypto market is about $2.3 trillion, and reaching $5 trillion by 2025 requires an annual growth of 47%, far exceeding the growth rate of traditional assets and relying on extreme capital inflows. If the U.S. passes the 'Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act' or restricts self-custody wallets, it could block institutional entry channels. Historical data shows that the price increase of Bitcoin after halving has been decreasing successively (55x in 2013 → 20x in 2017 → 3x in 2021). In this cycle, calculating by 3x, the peak could be about $180,000.
CZ's prediction ($500,000 - $1 million) falls into the extremely optimistic scenario, requiring multiple historical-level favorable factors to overlap, with a probability of less than 5%. Based on cyclical laws and existing data, BTC is more likely to reach $120,000 - $150,000 in this cycle, corresponding to a total crypto market cap of $3 trillion - $3.5 trillion.

The Modern Compensation and Misconduct Enforcement Act proposed by U.S. Senator Chris Murphy aims to prohibit political elites and their families from participating in the issuance, promotion, and profit-making of cryptocurrencies and meme coins. This bill directly addresses the risks of political figures manipulating the crypto market using their influence, but its rationality and feasibility of execution have sparked widespread controversy. Politicians hold the power to make policy, and if they also engage in crypto asset operations, they could profit through insider information or policy bias. Public endorsements from political figures may mislead retail investors, creating irrational speculation driven by a 'celebrity effect' and exacerbating market volatility. Privacy coins with strong anonymity or decentralized protocols could become hidden channels for political donations. Politicians could bypass traditional financial regulatory transparency requirements by having family members hold crypto assets or issue meme coins, forming a gray利益 chain. If politicians can freely participate in the crypto market, it will weaken the credibility of institutions like the SEC and CFTC, intensifying the ethical dilemma of 'regulators being regulated.' Political speculative behavior could stigmatize cryptocurrencies and hinder mainstream institutional entry.

The latest release of the 'Market Structure Discussion Draft' by the United States House of Representatives defines 'digital goods' and exempts them from securities attributes, representing a significant breakthrough in the history of cryptocurrency regulation.
The draft clarifies: trading digital goods in the secondary market does not constitute securities trading, provided that the purchaser does not obtain ownership rights from the issuer. This provision addresses the long-standing 'Howey Test' controversy that has troubled the market, significantly reducing compliance costs for exchanges and investors. After the regulatory clarification, the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs accelerated, and traditional asset management institutions could compliantly allocate digital goods, enhancing liquidity in the secondary market. Following the announcement of the draft, Bitcoin's trading volume surged by 18% within 24 hours, Ethereum increased by 14%, and the number of addresses holding over 1 BTC rose by 9%. This indicates positive investor expectations for 'de-securitization,' especially as AI tokens benefit from technological neutrality, with trading volumes rising by 22% concurrently. The bill sets a standard for determining 'no single controller' in DeFi and establishes reserve and issuer qualification requirements for stablecoins. This provides a scalable operational framework for decentralized protocols and compliant stablecoins, attracting more traditional financial institutions to participate in on-chain liquidity pool construction.
This draft provides phased clarity for the cryptocurrency market, particularly regarding secondary market trading compliance and the positioning of mainstream tokens. More tokens are expected to escape securities disputes, but must meet decentralization and functional practicality standards. However, complex asset and regulatory coordination issues remain ongoing challenges. In the long term, compliance will accelerate industry consolidation, pushing cryptocurrency from 'marginal innovation' to 'mainstream financial infrastructure.'

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is as high as 97.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 2.7%; by June, the probability of maintaining interest rates is 69.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 29.4%. This expectation mainly stems from the U.S. non-farm payroll data in April exceeding expectations, the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%, and core PCE inflation still being above the 2% target. In addition, the Federal Reserve is concerned that the Trump administration's tariff policy may drive up inflation, further delaying the timing of rate cuts.
In the context of postponed rate cut expectations and a sustained high interest rate environment, it is recommended to increase the proportion of stablecoins in crypto assets to 20%-30% to cope with market volatility and capture short-term arbitrage opportunities. The proportion of large-cap, highly liquid assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum can be raised to 50%-60%, as their anti-inflation properties and institutional holdings provide a certain defensive stance. It is advisable to postpone allocating high-volatility small-cap tokens, reduce DeFi leverage operations, and avoid the risk of a liquidity crunch leading to a market sell-off.

The repeated legislative process of US stablecoin and the differences between the two parties indeed bring significant uncertainty to industry innovation and user trust. The Democrats' withdrawal of support focuses on the weakening of anti-money laundering (AML) and national security provisions in the GENIUS Act. The current bill attempts to establish a federal framework, but some provisions have sparked controversy. The $10 billion threshold for non-bank institutions to issue stablecoins has been criticized as 'overly biased towards traditional banks,' potentially stifling the participation of emerging enterprises. This dual regulatory system, if lacking coordination, will increase compliance costs and hinder the development of small and medium-sized innovators. The executive orders from the Trump era still influence the current legislative direction. Its emphasis on 'economic freedom' may exacerbate the Democrats' resistance to deregulation, especially regarding questions of conflicts of interest.
The current political stalemate will continue to hinder stablecoin innovation in the short term, but in the long run, a clear regulatory framework remains an inevitable trend. For industry participants, the following preparations are necessary:
- Risk hedging: Diversifying issuance locations and compliance strategies, such as simultaneously entering the European market regulated by MiCA;
- Technical reserves: Enhancing on-chain compliance tools to adapt to possible future regulations;
- User education: Bridging the trust gap caused by regulatory absence through transparent operations.

If the US can resolve the bipartisan differences and balance innovation with safety, stablecoins are still expected to become a key tool in consolidating the dollar's position; conversely, a regulatory vacuum may hand over its dominance to competitors.

The recent anti-money laundering regulation passed by the EU has sparked intense debate about the boundaries of government power and the protection of financial privacy. This regulation is set to take effect in July 2027, and its core content includes the prohibition of anonymous crypto accounts and privacy coins, requiring identity verification for crypto transactions exceeding 1,000 euros, and establishing an anti-money laundering authority to directly supervise large platforms. This policy is seen by supporters as a necessary measure to combat illegal activities, while critics argue that it infringes on personal privacy and financial autonomy. In 2023, the global amount of cryptocurrency-related crime reached 59 billion dollars, with anonymous transactions accounting for over 30%. The EU's adoption of AMLR mandates transaction transparency, which can effectively disrupt the chain of criminal funds and aligns with global anti-money laundering standards. Anonymity fosters the risk of fraud and asset theft. Statistics show that in 2024, personal losses in the EU due to cryptocurrency fraud averaged 23,000 euros. The AMLR, through KYC/AML requirements, can reduce fake projects, phishing attacks, and private key theft incidents, enhancing user trust. Anonymous crypto assets may weaken traditional financial regulatory frameworks. For instance, unregulated privacy coin transactions could disrupt the transmission of monetary policy, while the AMLR incorporates cryptocurrencies into a unified regulatory system, helping to prevent systemic risks. The EU's AMLR represents a redefinition of 'regulatory power' and 'privacy rights' in the digital economy era. Its necessity lies in curbing crime, protecting users, and maintaining financial stability, but excessive intervention may stifle innovation and undermine individual rights. The ideal path should seek a dynamic balance between transparency and privacy, security and freedom, achieving 'bounded regulation' through technological means and policy flexibility. This process not only tests the EU's governance wisdom but will also provide a key model for global digital asset regulation.

#苹果放宽加密规则 Apple's recent adjustments to its open policy in the iOS application ecosystem, especially in the European Union region, allowing third-party app markets, sideloading features, and guiding users to use external payment methods, have indeed created new opportunities for the popularization of crypto and Web3 applications. This shift is both a response to antitrust pressures and reflects Apple's gradual trend of opening up its ecosystem.
For the first time, Apple has allowed developers to guide users to complete payments through non-App Store channels within apps, such as NFT transactions and cryptocurrency purchases, thus bypassing the 30% 'Apple tax.' Apple has opened some private APIs, allowing third-party apps to use non-WebKit engines and a broader range of hardware capabilities. Despite this openness, Apple still emphasizes the review of piracy and illegal content.
Apple's open policy provides a critical springboard for Web3 applications to move from 'crypto geeks' to 'mainstream consumption.' In the short term, NFT transactions, blockchain games, and DeFi wallets may become the biggest beneficiaries; in the long term, the combination of virtual and real-world metaverse experiences and the creator economy may reshape the interaction model of the iOS ecosystem. However, regional policy, security risks, and development costs remain obstacles to overcome. In the future, if Apple promotes its EU experience globally, the 'iPhone moment' for Web3 may truly arrive.

#数字资产法案
The upcoming new cryptocurrency regulation draft from the Republican Party of the U.S. House of Representatives (such as the revised version of the "21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act") is a key step in the reconstruction of the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory system in recent years. The draft attempts to resolve jurisdictional disputes between the SEC and CFTC through a classified regulatory framework, categorizing digital assets into securities, commodities, payment instruments, and other categories, each regulated by the SEC and CFTC respectively. The bill requires cryptocurrency exchanges to register with the SEC or CFTC and allows them to trade digital securities, commodities, and stablecoins. If implemented, it will attract traditional financial institutions, but compliance costs may squeeze the survival space of small and medium-sized exchanges.
The bill is expected to provide phased clarity for the U.S. cryptocurrency market, especially in the areas of stablecoin and exchange compliance, but its vague treatment of DeFi and decentralized standards may perpetuate uncertainty. The key to promoting adoption lies in balancing innovation inclusiveness with risk control, while excessive intervention will stifle industry vitality. If both parties can coordinate their interests and incorporate global experiences, the U.S. may become the "gold standard" for cryptocurrency regulation, driving the market into a new cycle of institution-driven growth.

#空投操作全指南 1. Core Steps for Airdrop Operation
- Create a dedicated wallet
- Allocate addresses by chain
- Save the mnemonic phrase to physical media
- Some test networks require completing CAPTCHA/Gitcoin Passport verification
① Do not sign unverified ERC20Permit
② Do not authorize more tokens than required for the task
③ Do not connect to contracts containing the "increaseAllowance" function

#空投防骗手册 Airdrop Security Golden Rules
1. Three No Principles: Do not disclose private keys, do not authorize casually, do not pay in advance
2. Three Layers of Verification: Project background verification, contract code verification, community consensus verification
3. Three Lines of Defense: Isolated wallets, limited authorization, continuous monitoring

By building a systematic defense framework, users can reduce airdrop participation risks by more than 90%. Remember: truly high-quality airdrops will never ask you to give up core assets or private information.

The "Tariff Replacement for Federal Income Tax" policy proposed by the Trump administration aims to offset the income tax burden on low- and middle-income groups by increasing import tariffs. If implemented, this policy will have a profound impact on the structure of the U.S. economy, inflation levels, and the cryptocurrency market. In the early stages of the policy, the market may experience fluctuations due to uncertainty, but in the long run, if inflation persists and the regulatory framework improves, cryptocurrencies will benefit from anti-inflation demand and institutional capital inflows. Therefore, the medium-term outlook is bullish, but close attention must be paid to changes in Federal Reserve policy and the evolution of international trade dynamics.

#空投发现指南 Evaluation Criteria for Airdrop Quality
- Projects backed by well-known institutional investors are more likely to issue high-value airdrops.
- Prioritize projects that address real pain points.
- Requires multiple cross-contract operations or long-term staking.
- Project teams may filter out low-quality accounts based on Gas consumption, IP fingerprints, social activity, etc.
- Projects with a distribution ratio higher than 5% are more attractive.
- Avoid one-time token releases that lead to sell pressure; prefer projects with phased unlocks or those that bind governance rights.
- Check project compliance through platforms like WikiBit and be cautious of airdrops that require private keys or high fees.
- Refer to user ratings and reviews on platforms like Airdrop rating.io to avoid scam risks.
Discovering quality airdrops requires a combination of tool screening, ecosystem tracking, and community interaction, with a focus on assessing project background, task design, and token models. Recent cases indicate that airdrops in the fields of AI, cross-chain, and social finance have significant potential, but be wary of compliance risks and witch detection. Users are advised to continuously monitor updates from aggregation platforms and flexibly adjust strategies to cope with increasingly refined filtering mechanisms by project teams.

In the past six months, XRP's return rate has exceeded 300%, far surpassing Bitcoin and Ethereum. Recently, after the launch of CME futures, the price broke $2.19, and analysts predict that if it breaks $2.30, it may further challenge $6.50. Currently, XRP's market capitalization is about $140 billion, and if the cross-border payment market penetration increases, its value still has room for growth.
Bitcoin and Ethereum have market capitalizations of over $1.6 trillion and $400 billion, respectively. XRP needs to achieve several times growth to be on par, but the limitations of existing application scenarios may restrict its scale expansion. XRP has been criticized for its centralization due to Ripple Labs' control over the token supply (such as holding 55 billion XRP), which undermines its appeal among decentralized believers. Stablecoins and other payment chains may divert XRP's market demand, especially in the traditional financial sector.
XRP is more likely to become a 'niche leader' in the payment field, rather than a comprehensive challenger to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Its market capitalization growth depends on the actual adoption rate of cross-border payments and the continued expansion of the Ripple ecosystem. XRP has unique advantages in the payment track, but it needs to break through existing application boundaries and consolidate regulatory achievements to occupy a more core position in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

$ETH Hoskinson believes that Ethereum's Layer 2 solutions obtain high returns through centralized sequencers, but only allocate a small amount of funds for mainnet settlement, leading to a loss of value from the Ethereum mainnet. The Base chain has been accused of transferring over 90% of sequencer profits to Coinbase for sale, rather than reinvesting in the Ethereum ecosystem. This model has been criticized as 'vampiric' rather than enhancing mainnet value. Hoskinson points out that Ethereum's account model, virtual machine, and consensus mechanism have design flaws that cannot adapt to future demands. Meanwhile, high-performance public chains such as Solana and Sui are challenging Ethereum's 'settlement layer' narrative through high concurrent performance and modular architecture, attempting to reconstruct the blockchain ecosystem landscape. The controversy of comparing Ethereum to Myspace or Blackberry lies in the fact that Ethereum's ecosystem scale and developer base far exceed those of early internet products. Ethereum accounts for over 60% of the total locked value in DeFi and has the most mature developer tools and EVM compatibility.
Ethereum's core advantage lies in its large developer community and the maturity of its infrastructure. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently called on Layer 2 projects to enhance mainnet value accumulation by burning fees or staking ETH, attempting to balance ecological benefit distribution. Additionally, technological improvements such as the Cancun upgrade are still being advanced, with long-term goals including protocol simplification and ZK-SNARKs integration. The inflow of funds into Ethereum spot ETFs and institutional adoption indicates that it still enjoys favor from mainstream capital. In contrast, Cardano's market value growth relies more on political narratives rather than technological breakthroughs.
Hoskinson's criticisms reveal the deep contradictions within the Ethereum ecosystem, but his '10-15 year extinction theory' may be overly pessimistic. Ethereum's challenge lies in how to convert its technological advantages into sustainable ecological value, rather than being completely replaced. In the short term, its network effects and developer barriers remain difficult to shake; in the long term, it needs to address the benefit coordination issue between Layer 2 and the mainnet. There is optimism that Ethereum can maintain its leadership position through incremental upgrades, especially given its institutional penetration and the irreplaceability of its developer ecosystem. However, attention should be paid to breakthroughs by emerging public chains in specific scenarios, as well as the policy-driven risks of projects like Cardano. Ultimately, the diversity of the crypto ecosystem will promote multi-chain coexistence rather than a single chain 'winner takes all'.

From February to April 2022, Trump repeatedly imposed or threatened to impose tariffs, leading to several drastic fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.
- After announcing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China on February 1, Bitcoin saw a single-day drop of 8.7%, with a total market capitalization shrinking by $455 billion, and the derivatives market clearing over $2.1 billion.
- On April 7, "Black Monday," the BTC price fell below $77,000, with a total liquidation of $986 million across the network, and large whale positions were forced to liquidate due to on-chain clearings, causing mainstream coins like ETH to drop over 15%.
- The market's immediate reaction to tariff policies typically manifests as panic selling, with risk assets being the first to suffer, though news of tariff suspensions can trigger a brief rebound. Imposing tariffs raises the prices of imported goods, exacerbating inflationary pressures and forcing the Federal Reserve to reassess its policies during the interest rate cut cycle.
The cryptocurrency market has not yet decoupled from macro risks, but the long-term trend may be dominated by the interplay of policies and capital in the short term. Stricter tariff policies may replay historical volatility, especially if the Federal Reserve turns hawkish due to inflationary pressures, which would subject the cryptocurrency market to a dual blow of tightening liquidity and declining risk appetite. However, in the long run, improvements in regulatory frameworks, inflows of institutional capital, and technological innovations may gradually weaken the impact of macro shocks, pushing the market towards relative independence.

On April 23, 2025, the market capitalization of Bitcoin exceeded $1.9 trillion, surpassing Google to become the fifth largest asset in the world. This milestone event not only reflects the maturity of the cryptocurrency market but also reveals potential future development paths and risks. After Bitcoin's market capitalization broke $1.9 trillion, its scale approached that of traditional giants like Apple and Saudi Aramco, exceeding the total of the Spanish and Brazilian bond markets. This scale has attracted more institutional investors' attention; for instance, the trading volume of BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF-related options surged to 2.5 million BTC on Nasdaq after its listing, an increase of 40% from the previous day. The entry of institutions not only brings liquidity but also encourages Bitcoin to be included in a broader range of traditional investment portfolios. The market capitalization ratio of Bitcoin to gold reached an all-time high, further enhancing its attributes of 'inflation resistance' and 'store of value.' Especially in the context of global geopolitical conflicts and the loosening of the dollar's credibility, Bitcoin is seen as a tool to hedge against the depreciation of fiat currency.
Bitcoin's market capitalization surpassing Google marks its transformation from an 'alternative asset' to a 'mainstream asset,' but this process is fraught with uncertainty. In the short term, market sentiment may continue to push prices higher, especially with the combined effects of Trump’s policy dividends and institutional capital inflows; in the medium to long term, attention must be paid to the implementation of regulatory frameworks, breakthroughs in technological bottlenecks, and the competitive relationship with the traditional financial system. The future of Bitcoin depends on both the consolidation of its intrinsic value and the evolution of external environments. Only by finding a balance between technological innovation, compliance, and market demand can the vision of 'digital gold' be truly realized.

$TRUMP Trump Meme Coin (TRUMP) surged over 60% in price after the announcement that the top 220 holders would be invited to his private dinner. This event reflects the high sensitivity and speculation of the cryptocurrency market towards political narratives, but also exposes multiple risks.
As a former President of the United States and a current political figure, Trump's personal influence directly drives the popularity of TRUMP coin. By linking cryptocurrency with political activities, the team successfully created a scarcity of 'social capital', stimulating demand among holders. Additionally, the Trump administration's relatively 'friendly' stance on cryptocurrencies in recent years has provided macro advantages for such projects. Following the event announcement, retail investors flooded into the market due to 'fear of missing out', combined with manipulation by major players, leading to a rapid price increase. Although the price soared in the short term, TRUMP coin has historically shown extreme volatility, lacks practical application scenarios, and relies on political gimmicks that are difficult to sustain in value. 80% of the tokens are controlled by the project team and remain locked, posing significant future sell-off pressure. If the dinner is canceled or Trump is absent, holders will receive limited edition NFTs. Although NFTs may become a new target for speculation, their value depends on the continued influence of Trump's personal brand, which carries uncertainty.
This incident is essentially a combination of political influence and cryptocurrency speculation; while the short-term hype has stimulated demand, long-term value still needs actual ecological support. For investors, it is essential to be wary of high volatility, control risks, and policy backlash, and to avoid blindly chasing prices. If used as a speculative tool, it could be combined with swing trading and hedging strategies, while closely monitoring Trump's policy trends and on-chain holdings changes.