Altcoins: (Analysis of Strengthening Signals)
Yesterday, the overall altcoin market experienced a significant rebound, and a group of friends has started to fomo. It was clearly mentioned yesterday that the current market remains cautious. After the rebound yesterday, the altcoins fell back, basically returning to the rebound space of the morning. In this regard, we analyze from multiple dimensions to assess the sustainability of the market.
Signals of Strengthening Altcoin Market:
1. Sector rotation, with leading coins breaking through key resistance first;
2. Volume confirmation, with altcoin prices rising while daily trading volume increases several times, indicating “real buying interest”;
3. Capital inflow, with net buying in stablecoin mainstream trading pairs continuously turning positive;
4. Macroeconomic support, with a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, continuing lower CPI, and negative crypto policies emerging.
I believe the current trend leans towards “rebound rather than reversal.” First, the structure of mainstream coins has not changed and still remains within a descending channel or mid-range position; second, the trading volume is insufficient, with a general decrease in volume during yesterday's rebound, lacking characteristics of significant capital inflow; third, the Federal Reserve's more hawkish expectations early in the morning have not yet fully established a formula for the timing of interest rate cuts; fourth, the U.S. SEC continues to delay multiple spot ETF approvals; fifth, recent tokens like ZRO and ZK have a high proportion of unlocks. Without sufficient buying signals, maintaining a cautious stance is the most reasonable. The true “starting point for upward movement” must at least see mainstream coins stabilize, on-chain capital flow back, market confidence restored, and be strengthened by favorable macroeconomic expectations.
It is worth noting that the implementation of the CNH stablecoin will promote the development of the RWA sector. Especially with its recent linkage to U.S. Treasury bonds, interest is gradually rising, and the main coins in the RWA sector such as ONDO, MKR, and AAVE should be closely monitored.
