Fundamentals:
1. Past three days (June 21 to June 23) of the evolution of the Iran conflict.
June 21: Sharp escalation with the launch of a second wave of airstrikes, focusing on Iranian nuclear facilities; hawks will use bombers to intervene in airstrikes; Iran retaliates with missiles and drones.
June 22: UN Secretary-General warns that the conflict may spiral out of control; Russia and China urge a ceasefire; the UK and Australia issue high-risk warnings; Iran proposes to close the Strait of Hormuz; the Iranian Foreign Minister heads to Moscow for talks; the US subsequently states it is 'considering intervention.'
June 23: Continued escalation with ongoing airstrikes; Iran takes a hardline stance, refusing to negotiate; the conflict has become a normalized confrontation.
2. Factors influencing the decline in the cryptocurrency market:
1. The renewed escalation of the Iran conflict and rising tensions in the Middle East have triggered an increase in global risk aversion, leading to a withdrawal of risk capital.
2. Massive liquidations and capital outflows; over $1 billion liquidated cumulatively in the two days from June 21 to 22, especially with Ethereum experiencing a flash crash of nearly 8.5% in one hour; many BTC long positions were also liquidated.
3. US stocks fell sharply at the end of the session, increasing uncertainty in risk assets, with funds seeking safety in the dollar and US Treasury bonds.
4. Technical shape breaks, intensifying downward pressure.
Technical analysis:
BTC: Weekly chart shows a sharp rise followed by a large bearish candle, breaking below the seven-day moving average and the 103 support level from the last month; the weekly level may continue to decline, with key support focusing on the 95 level where the previous rise started. The daily chart shows three consecutive large bearish candles, consistently dropping below the seven-day moving average; yesterday saw a significant drop with a long lower shadow; the technical gap is widening, and a slight rebound is expected to repair this gap. The overall daily trend remains in a downward channel. The 4-hour chart shows a significant drop during the US trading session last night, touching around 98, followed by a strong rebound this morning, without breaking the short-term downward channel. For intraday operations, focus on short positions; key resistance is at 1018-1028, and key support is at 998-988.
ETH: Weekly chart shows a sharp rise followed by a large bearish candle, breaking below the low of 2480 which has been the defense level for over a month, touching around 2100. The 2000 level is an important defense; if broken, watch for 1800. The daily chart shows three consecutive large bearish candles with no signals indicating a bottom; buying opportunities are unclear, and the market may need to consolidate to repair technical gaps. If geopolitical conflicts do not ease, the market is likely to trigger another round of declines, testing the 2000 and 1800 levels. The 4-hour chart suggests we are in a rebound phase after a significant drop, with clear resistance levels above. For today’s operations, focus on short positions; key resistance is at 2260-2290, and key support is at 2190-2160.
Altcoins: For nearly twenty days, I've been emphasizing risk control; do not FOMO due to a small rebound; if the market isn't yielding profit, it’s better to observe. Blindly rushing in will only affect the layout for significant future trends. Two major events (interest rate cuts, approval of spot ETFs) may bring a wave of upward momentum in the second half of the year; preserving capital will allow better opportunities, rather than watching others profit while you are still waiting to break even.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; caution is needed when entering the market; personal opinion, not advice; for sharing purposes only.
