Report dated June 18, 2025.
After the US stock market opened yesterday, there was a slight pullback, and Bitcoin followed the US stock market, dropping to a low of $103,371.
This decline is mainly due to concerns that the situation in the Middle East may further escalate.
Currently, it seems that the US is preparing to intervene in the Middle East conflict, with Trump directly addressing Iran's supreme leader, demanding unconditional surrender and stating that they have pinpointed his hiding place and can strike at any time.
Israeli officials estimate that the US may soon go to war with Iran. Trump held a meeting last night in the White House situation room with the national security team to discuss US policies regarding the Israel-Iran conflict.
US officials revealed that Trump is seriously considering joining the war, and may even strike Iranian nuclear facilities, especially the underground uranium enrichment facility located in Fordow.
Iran warned that if the US joins Israel's war against Iran, they are prepared to launch missile attacks on US military bases in the Middle East and may even deploy sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz as retaliation.
The biggest impact of this geopolitical conflict in the Middle East on US stocks and Bitcoin is that rising oil prices will push up US inflation.
Yesterday, the Fed's spokesperson Nick tweeted that if it weren't for Trump's tariff policy, the Fed might have already cut rates in June, effectively shifting the blame for not cutting rates onto Trump's tariff policy.
Next, the market's focus will be on the Fed's interest rate cut dot plot and Powell's speech on Thursday morning, which will directly affect the trends of the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market.
However, from the data perspective, Bitcoin price fluctuations have not triggered panic among investors; the turnover rate has decreased, indicating that most people are not worried about short-term trends.
Only short-term investors who bought in the last two days are selling, while others are either waiting for the results of Thursday's monetary policy meeting or believe that the impact of the geopolitical conflict is limited and will not last long.
From the support level perspective, $93,000 to $98,000 is currently the strongest range, and the turnover rate among these investors is very low.
The chips in the $100,500 to $105,000 range are also increasing, with over 1.07 million Bitcoins accumulated around $105,000, but since they are mainly short-term investors, the support is not yet stable.
From the funding perspective, on-site funds increased by 700 million, totaling 261.34 billion.
USDT market value is 155.476 billion, down by 0.09 billion, and USD market value decreased by 0.26 billion. This indicates that the inflow of funds in the Asian market has paused, while trading volume has surged. The inflow of funds in the American market has also stopped, and trading volume has decreased.
From the trading volume of stablecoins USDT and USDC, the Asian market is more active, while the American market's activity has decreased, and liquidity may have been diverted to US stocks.
Overall, the market is most concerned about whether the situation in the Middle East will worsen, followed by the Fed's dot plot and Powell's speech.
Currently, the VIX index is around 21, with a cautious sentiment in the US stock market, and the fear and greed index is at 48, indicating that the market is not yet in a state of panic.
Next, pay close attention to the Fed's June interest rate decision and Powell's speech on Thursday morning.
If the dot plot confirms two interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, the market may breathe a sigh of relief. However, if there is only one rate cut, the US stock market and cryptocurrency market may continue to face pressure.
