#美联储FOMC会议

On June 18, 2025, the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is expected to maintain the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, with the market predicting a possible rate cut of 0.25% in September. The dot plot shows expectations of two rate cuts within the year, but most officials prefer only one rate cut or maintaining the rate. Economic forecasts lowered the 2025 GDP growth rate to 1.7%, the unemployment rate was raised to 4.4%, and inflation expectations rose to 2.7%-2.8%. Powell emphasized "no change" to cope with changes, focusing on tariffs and inflation uncertainty, and denying an impending recession. The pace of balance sheet reduction has been slowed, with Treasury securities holdings being reduced at a rate of $5 billion/month starting in April. The market reacted positively, with US stocks rising and the US dollar falling. The Federal Reserve's policy needs to balance inflation and employment. Trump's policies may exacerbate inflationary pressures, and the pace of rate cuts is becoming more cautious.