#美联储FOMC会议 FOMC Dot Plot Changes and Market Expectation Gap

The latest dot plot median shows one rate cut in 2024 (down from three previously), but the market pricing still expects two cuts. This divergence stems from: 1) concerns among committee members about inflation stickiness; 2) political considerations in an election year; 3) financial conditions index has significantly eased. Notably, the median rate forecast for 2025 has been raised from 3.9% to 4.1%, suggesting that the "higher for longer" stance remains unchanged. Traders should be wary of the risk of expectation repricing ahead of the September meeting.