June 17, 2025 Report
Yesterday, after the US stock market opened, there was an increase, and Bitcoin also rebounded. From the price trend, market sentiment is still good.
However, early this morning, Trump suddenly urged everyone to evacuate Tehran, the capital of Iran, followed by Iran releasing news that it is preparing to launch the largest and most severe missile attack in history against Israel.
Now both sides have begun to attack each other's military and energy facilities, and the situation in the Middle East may further escalate.
Although Trump expressed a desire to mediate, both sides are still engaged in intense fighting, and the situation is unclear.
Iran has few cards left to play; aside from using conventional weapons to attack each other's energy facilities and cause mutual harm, they can also control the Strait of Hormuz.
However, if the Persian Gulf is really blocked, Iran may bring trouble upon itself and become the target of criticism.
So in the short term, uncertainty is high, and the market is completely driven by emotions. It is advisable to watch more and act less.
From the data, the rise in Bitcoin prices has driven trading activity, with an increase in turnover rate, mainly due to short-term investors who bought the dip in the past two days selling off, while medium- to long-term investors remain stable and are not concerned about short-term fluctuations.
The Bitcoin stock on exchanges continues to decline, and investor sentiment is optimistic, with more people being bullish on Bitcoin's long-term trend.
From the support level perspective, there are still 2 million Bitcoins in the $93,000 to $98,000 range, and the price increase hasn't driven these holders to sell, indicating stable market sentiment.
Additionally, MicroStrategy has spent another $1 billion to acquire 10,100 Bitcoins at an average price of $104,080, bringing its total holdings to 592,100 Bitcoins with an average cost of $70,666.
No wonder Bitcoin has been so resilient recently; the buying pressure in the short term is indeed strong.
From a capital perspective, the total amount of funds in the market remains stable at $260.6 billion, with a slight increase of $0.39 billion in USDT market capitalization. Asian funds saw a slight inflow on Monday, but trading activity is not as high as over the weekend.
The market capitalization of USDC decreased by $0.61 billion, and US funds saw a slight outflow, but trading volume significantly increased.
Overall, the market is in a cautiously optimistic state, with the fear and greed index around 53.
Everyone is currently most concerned about macroeconomic data, especially the impact of the Middle East conflict on the market, followed by the progress of US-China trade negotiations, and then the Fed's dot plot and Powell's speech.
The situation in the Middle East is driving up energy prices, and the market is worried that US inflation will rebound. The uncertainty of a rate cut in 2025 has increased, and everyone is waiting for a clear signal from this week's Fed dot plot.
In the early hours of Thursday, the Fed will announce the June interest rate decision, with the probability of no rate cut as high as 99.8%. The market has already priced this in; the focus is on the dot plot for rate cuts and Powell's statements.
Whether there will be one or two interest rate cuts in 2025 is crucial. Due to rising inflation expectations, the probability of a rate cut in September has decreased from 61.2% last week to 57.2%. Market confidence in a rate cut has weakened.
If the dot plot confirms two rate cuts in the second half of the year, market sentiment may ease. However, if the rate cut is reduced to one, the US stock and cryptocurrency markets may face significant pressure.
