Title
SUI Crash Warning! The lower Bollinger Band is in distress, smart money is fleeing, and 3.0 is the line of life and death! Bottom-fishing opportunity or death trap? 🔥
Technical Analysis
1. Price Status:
• Bollinger Bands: Current price (3.054) is close to the 1-hour lower band (3.053), with a Bollinger Band position value of 1.135 (greater than 1), indicating the price is in the oversold area, with a potential rebound demand in the short term.
• MA200: Price is below MA200 (3.201), with a deviation of -4.6%, indicating a bearish trend in the medium to long term.
• Holding Cost: Price is below the holding cost (3.143), with a deviation of -2.8%, most holders are in a loss state, with high selling pressure risk.
2. Market Strength:
• Trading Volume: The 24-hour trading volume ratio reached 3.04 times, showing a dominant bearish trend; however, the 1-hour RSI (40.4) is close to oversold, indicating a possibility of a technical rebound.
• Open Interest: 24-hour open interest decreased by 3.58%, with the long-short ratio rising to 1.8384, reflecting that bulls are passively increasing positions but funds are continuously flowing out (1-hour net outflow of $2.5 million).
• Order Book: The nearby sell orders (1.08 million) far exceed buy orders (710,000), with selling pressure concentrated in the range of 3.072-3.33 (liquidity value of 218k-818k), a breakthrough requires substantial buying volume.
3. Key Levels:
• Support: 3.031 (liquidity 205k), 2.96 (307k), breaking below will accelerate the downward movement.
• Resistance: 3.072 (218k), 3.21 (275k), a breakthrough requires matching trading volume.
Market Cycle
Currently in the mid-phase of a bear market: prices remain below MA200, with a weekly decline of 11.44%, dominated by net outflows, and rebounds are merely technical corrections.
Trading Strategy
1. Short-term Long Position (Caution):
• Entry: 3.031 (testing liquidity support)
• Stop Loss: 2.995 (below support by 3.0%)
• Target: 3.10 (previous high resistance)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 1.59 (Long formula: (3.10-3.031)/(3.031-2.995)=0.069/0.036≈1.59)
2. Risk Warning:
• If it falls below 2.995, it may trigger stop-loss orders down to 2.8 (liquidity 479k);
• Avoid trading during low liquidity periods in the Asian early session, position ≤ 2%.
Summary: Oversold rebound opportunities are approaching, but strict stop-loss is necessary! If it falls below 3.0, the trend will turn bearish.
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