SUI plummets 10% but rebounds from the bottom! Smart money secretly accumulates, $2.8 becomes the lifeline for bulls and bears!
Currently, SUI is in a period of oversold rebound, with a short-term buying opportunity in the support zone of $2.81, but strict stop-loss is required. Market sentiment remains weak, and a reversal needs to confirm a return in volume + break through the mid-line resistance at $2.92.
Price Status:
• Bollinger Bands: The current price of $2.8249 is above the lower band ($2.7646) by 21.88%, in the critical zone of oversold rebound, but the mid-band ($2.9024) pressure is significant.
• MA200 Deviation: The price is 10.63% below MA200 ($3.1608), reflecting that the long-term downward trend remains unchanged.
• Holding Cost: 8.75% below the average price of holders ($3.0958), most holders are in a loss position, which may trigger selling pressure.
Market Strength:
• Trading Volume: 24-hour trading volume shrinks by 57% (volume ratio 0.43), downward momentum weakens but no reversal signal appears.
• Long/Short Game: Contract positions increased by 7.27% in 24 hours, long/short ratio rises to 1.99, short sellers taking profits drive the rebound, but a net outflow of $8.16 million (1d) shows that the main force still remains bearish.
• Liquidity: Key support at $2.81-$2.68 (buy-side liquidity $2.61 million), above $2.8455 there is a sell wall of $200,000, a breakout requires volume support.
Key Levels:
• Support: $2.81 (dense buy order area) → $2.68 (largest liquidity pool $900,000)
• Resistance: $2.8455 (recent selling pressure) → $3.21 ($280,000 sell order barrier)
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Trading Strategy
Short-term rebound opportunity (1-3 days):
• Entry: $2.81 (when testing support for a rebound)
• Stop Loss: $2.78 (break below previous low strengthens the downward trend)
• Target: $2.8455 (liquidity gap) → $2.92 (Bollinger mid-line)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.3:1 (calculated based on entry at $2.81 and taking profit at $2.8455)
Risk Warning:
1. If $2.78 is lost, it may accelerate the drop towards $2.68 (stop-loss order aggregation area);
2. Contract funding rate turns positive (0.00007687), risk of short squeeze is low;
3. Position ≤2%, avoid low liquidity periods (e.g., UTC midnight).
> Strategy invalidation condition: If the price falls below $2.78 with increased volume within 30 minutes or fails to break through $2.8455, exit the position.
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