The Big Test in the Cryptocurrency World is Here! This week features a super central bank week, with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England all making significant moves, pushing cryptocurrency prices directly to the "macro game" volcano!
1. The Federal Reserve Stays Put, Rate Cut Expectations Sky-High
The dot plot predicts two rate cuts in 2025 (totaling 50 basis points), with the first possibly in September. If dovish signals are released, a weaker dollar will be beneficial for cryptocurrencies; the balance sheet reduction scale has been cut from $25 billion to $5 billion per month, and historical data shows that under such easing, Bitcoin has averaged an 18% increase.
2. The Bank of Japan’s Interest Rate Hike on Hold, Dual Risks Strike
Core CPI is predicted to break 3%. If an interest rate hike occurs, it would trigger a return of carry trade funds to the yen, potentially crashing the cryptocurrency market in the short term (the first interest rate hike in 2024 caused an 8% drop in Bitcoin). However, if easing is maintained, yen depreciation may push funds into cryptocurrencies—Japanese investors account for 12% of global trading volume, and their movements directly impact market sentiment.
3. The Bank of England Set to Cut Rates, Pound Volatility Transmitted
The market bets on a 25 basis point rate cut; if the pound weakens, it may divert funds to the cryptocurrency market; if the rate cut falls short of expectations, a rebound in the pound may suppress risk assets. Caution is needed as the autumn budget may elevate inflation, disrupting the pace of rate cuts.
4. Is CPI Cooling a Trigger or a Red Herring?
The annual CPI rate in the U.S. for May is 2.4%, lower than expected, providing space for rate cuts. Historical data shows that when CPI is below expectations, Bitcoin has averaged a 27% increase within three months. However, Trump’s tariff policies may raise import costs, raising concerns about a resurgence of inflation.
5. Cryptocurrency Price Tug-of-War: 115,000 or 100,000?
Optimists see the Federal Reserve rate cuts + Japanese easing pushing Bitcoin above 115,000; conservatives are wary of Japanese rate hikes + UK policies falling short of expectations, fearing a drop to 100,000. On-chain data shows short-term holders are starting to take profits, and attention is needed on key support levels.
Conclusion: Policy dividends and black swans coexist, it is recommended to allocate Bitcoin to hedge risks, and decisively stop losses if it falls below 98,000! What do you bet on in the comments this week—will it break 110,000 or fall below 100,000? Like, follow, and share with brothers who want to get rich!
