Recently, the intense confrontation between Trump and Musk resembles a 'debate show' being openly staged, attracting public attention and discussion. Many speculate that there may be a carefully planned 'performance' behind this, aimed at shifting the focus of public opinion towards 'financial capital', paving the way for subsequent policy changes. Just at this moment, the turmoil in California suddenly erupts, but curiously, this turmoil seems less intense than before; instead, it carries a sense of 'restraint', even giving off a 'staged' vibe, akin to a carefully choreographed 'crowd drama'.
Behind this, there may be a carefully planned grand scheme. California, as an important stronghold of the Democratic Party and also the core area of financial capital, if the situation here becomes unstable, the Democratic Party will undoubtedly fall into trouble. Meanwhile, Trump seizes this opportunity to appear strongly with a military intervention posture, using the usual strategy of 'winning amidst chaos' to attract public attention and refresh his presence. We have seen similar tactics in events like the construction of the border wall, the trade war, and discussions on racial issues.
From the perspective of the financial market, Trump may have three core objectives this time:
- Suppress the stock market, wait for the opportunity to short: By triggering market volatility, create a perfect opportunity for specific forces to short the stock market, thus seeking personal gain in financial games.
- Create panic, boost demand for U.S. Treasuries: Utilize the market's panic sentiment to drive investors towards U.S. Treasuries, which are a relatively safe haven, thereby increasing market demand for U.S. Treasuries and creating favorable conditions for U.S. debt financing.
- Solidify votes, prepare for the election: On the eve of the election, skillfully use various means to unite public opinion, solidify the voter base, and make sufficient strategic preparations for the upcoming election.
To achieve these three major objectives, Trump may employ two key tactics:
- Use policy power to suppress the market: By implementing relevant policies, exert pressure on the financial market, triggering market adjustments and volatility.
- Create geopolitical crises to guide capital back: By manufacturing geopolitical tensions, induce global capital to flow back to the U.S., injecting new vitality into the U.S. economy and financial market.
In this context, will the Federal Reserve cooperate with Trump's intentions to implement significant interest rate cuts? Looking back, Trump has openly demanded a 200 basis point rate cut without concealment. He has always pursued rapid and immediate policy effects and does not favor gradual reform approaches. If the financial market does experience significant turmoil as anticipated, even facing the risk of collapse, the Federal Reserve may have to take drastic measures, performing a one-time aggressive rate cut, potentially starting from 100 basis points.
And behind this grand 'script', there may be deeper layouts. Once Trump successfully takes control of the situation, the Federal Reserve may release liquidity, and safe-haven assets such as Bitcoin and gold are expected to see a surge, while the dollar system may take this opportunity to enter a 'restart' mode. Meanwhile, Musk might quietly step back to the background, working on promoting a new financial and technological framework to provide strong support and a platform for the new party that Trump may establish.
In summary, the chaos in California serves as a fuse, with Trump as the mastermind behind the scenes, and the curtain on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts seems to have quietly lifted. How this 'grand drama' of deep intertwining between the financial market and political forces unfolds next is indeed something to look forward to.
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