1CPI and the Fed bombarded in turn, and the global financial market was ready for a terrifying 24 hours. Will it trigger a big plunge in US stocks, gold and digital currencies? Let's take a look at the analysis and forecasts of economists. Overall, if the consensus forecast of economists is accurate, the US CPI data in May will encourage policymakers to a certain extent, because it will ease the concerns that inflation will re-accelerate earlier this year, but it will also show that it will take some time for inflation to reach the Fed's 2% target. However, the deviation of CPI from expectations may trigger a new round of market pricing on the Fed's outlook. Saxo Bank predicts: If the US core CPI monthly rate in May is lower than 0.3%, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may be brought forward to September or November, the market's risk appetite will rise, which is good for the stock market and bad for the US dollar, and the 2-year US Treasury yield may fall below 4.75%. If the indicator is at 0.3-0.4%, the market will continue to bet on the Fed's interest rate cut in December and wait for the Fed's decision in a few hours, and the 2-year US Treasury yield may still fall. If the indicator is between 0.4-0.5%, the Fed's expectations for rate cuts this year will be cut from about 35 basis points to 25 basis points, risk aversion may push down the stock market, push up the dollar, and the 2-year Treasury yield will rise to 5%.
If the indicator is above 0.5%, the Fed will postpone any rate cuts this year, the 2-year Treasury yield will rise above 5%, the stock market may fall by about 2%, and the dollar will strengthen.
Emphasis: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment should be cautious. Please make sure you fully understand the relevant risks before making any investment decisions.
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