Yesterday, due to geopolitical tensions and market negativity, Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback, briefly falling below several key support levels, hitting a low near $103,000 before stabilizing and rebounding, reaching a high of $106,200 during the day. Currently, Bitcoin's price is oscillating around $105,000. It is advised to remain patient in the short term and gradually reduce positions on rallies.
The current market rhythm resembles the sideways consolidation period from March to August 2024: the upward movement lacks sustained momentum while there is support during declines, overall operating within the range of $100,000 to $110,000. For those skilled in short-term trading, they can continue to buy low and sell high; for those not adept at short-term trading, it is advised to wait for clearer direction before acting. Strategically, either wait for Bitcoin to break previous highs before chasing the rally or wait for a drop to key support levels to buy lower—positions in the middle lack cost-effectiveness and can easily lead to losses on both ends. It is recommended to only hold a certain proportion of large-cap spot positions and avoid heavy speculative bets, especially with high-leverage contracts as the risk of loss is extremely high in the current market.
Forget about the altcoin season!
A whale-level investor recently accurately shorted 16 altcoins on Hyperliquid, making nearly 6 million dollars in just three days.
Since June 12, this investor has begun large-scale shorting, currently achieving about 3.56 million dollars in floating profits.
Among them, shorting DOGE has been the most profitable, with a single transaction floating profit reaching 2.48 million dollars;
Shorting DOGEXRP also yielded substantial profits, with paper profits reaching 1.4 million dollars.
Currently, this address still holds a total value of about 57.5 million dollars in short positions. What's even more noteworthy is that in just the past three days, through funding fees (i.e., position interest), it has earned 2.275 million dollars.
Overall, this short-selling operation is a textbook-level success in terms of timing and profit efficiency.
Many people now blame the inability of altcoins to rise on the lack of interest rate cuts and liquidity, eagerly hoping that the Fed will intervene, but I believe that even if interest rates are cut, altcoins won't see any significant improvement.
Many who are eagerly anticipating interest rate cuts have developed a path dependence from 2021, where the global epic liquidity release was a crucial factor in the bull market, but beyond that, the more important aspect is that the crypto world has simultaneously seen a surge in innovation and extremely high belief in Web3 across various industries. There is nothing more ingrained than the notion of who can run faster and the big casino in the crypto world, so after interest rate cuts and liquidity release, there are reservoirs that can hold the influx.
Is the recent bull market in cryptocurrencies related to the interest rate cuts?
Isn’t it just because the assets are scarce? Why did so many crypto people initially estimate Circle's market cap so absurdly? As a result, it opened with a fourfold increase, completely slapping the market in the face. The root cause lies in: in the US stock market, the entire stablecoin sector only has Circle as a viable company, while in the crypto world, there are countless stablecoin projects, making it hard to choose.
So even if the market starts to 'release water' now, if funds want to flow, they need to find a pool to hold it—who is this 'pool'? Currently, it still looks like Bitcoin, with a little overflow to ETH and SOL, but as for altcoins? They haven't reached the stage where they can take over yet.
Finally, we've endured to the point of liquidity release, hurry up and issue tokens!
On-chain
Sol: Mainly plays trendy projects, but when there's no capital, even the trends have no volume, making it basically unplayable.
Base: Currently just focusing on the Virtual ecosystem, not very familiar with others.
Sui: Only when $SUI rises do the memes on the chain have some vitality.
BSC: Familiar, many ways to play, dividend projects, community projects, whale-controlled projects, each with its own highlights.
The core focus is on two points:
1) Whether the whale is strong and resourceful, market cap doesn't matter;
2) Whether it can be supported by gameplay to maintain activity, like those that have daily dividends or daily voting can increase activity without relying on charts.
By the way, let's review some positions I currently have on BSC:
$U: An obscure small coin, with low trading volume and few holders, but the price trend is relatively stable. It doesn't seem to be participating in trading competitions, continue to hold and observe the situation.
$JAGER: A USD1 pool with a dividend ratio of 0.11%. Recently, the trading volume has noticeably decreased, and dividends can only be claimed every few days, the pace has slowed down quite a bit.
$CA: Similarly, it's a USD1 pool that has already made it to the Alpha list. Although the price is dropping, the trading volume has increased, which might indicate unusual activity worth continuous attention.
$EGL1: Entered with a cost of 55M, currently pulled back to 45M, betting on whether the trading competition can recover.
$0xDREAM: Invested 7M, now at 4.3M, belongs to the MCP protocol, let's see how it plays out, not in a hurry to act, continue to observe.
$KOMA: An established project with not much new to offer, just continue to hold it as a faith coin.
$BMP: A chart token that originally belonged to the ETH chain, now just crossed to BSC, entered with a cost of 3M, now at 3.9M, holding and waiting for a while.
Summary: At this stage, the strategy is to firmly defend the BSC home turf, closely monitor the actions of the whales and market structure, and only strike when there is on-chain enthusiasm.
