Bitcoin is currently consolidating between 104,000 and 106,800 USD, having been sideways for nearly 3-4 days without breaking out in any direction. Not rising nor falling, the most feared is not the trend, but the 'dog庄 drawing the door' washing back and forth. I really want to say: if it’s going to rise, just give it a clear signal, pull it up and I’ll accompany it to the end!
Currently, BTC has broken through 106,800 USD, and in the short term, the next resistance level is concentrated in the 107,500-108,000 range. If the small cycle continues to stabilize above 105,500, then the market may further clear the upper limit liquidity and initiate a squeeze.
The orange trend line remains a key support level, pay attention to the pullback opportunity at the 105,200 line during the day, which is a better bullish entry point; reference the short-term defensive level at 104,400, if broken, the structure needs to be reassessed.
Is BTC going back to 108,000 again?
From the estimated liquidation perspective: a downward push to 101,000 can only explode 1.2 billion, while pulling up to 110,000 can explode 2 billion. Of course, it's better to pull up.
From the chip structure perspective, the short-term upward movement faces two key resistances: the first at 108,600, and the second at the integer barrier of 110,000. Overall, I will be a bit conservative and first see if we can successfully break through 108,600. The support below is near 101,100, and a short-term pullback to this position is also possible. So I am currently holding a substantial amount of backup capital, waiting for a clearer direction to emerge.
In summary, my current strategy is actually to open both long and short positions. I am holding a long position in BTC around 103,602, while gradually building a short position in altcoins. Overall, regardless of whether the market chooses to break upward or test downward, I have ample backup space to respond.
My consistent style is to prefer to act reactively rather than gamble on direction in advance. As long as the market provides sufficient volatility, I have the opportunity to seize profits—rather than predicting direction, I prepare to respond according to the structure; this is the core logic to remain undefeated in a volatile market.
Ethereum
Ethereum has been consolidating in the 2480-2580 range this weekend, having successfully closed a weekly bullish candle last week, with the weekly line now consolidating for five weeks. It appears that Ethereum has effectively broken through the 2480-2580 range, and the potential pullback long point has shifted to near the upper edge of the box at 2577, with the first target for this breakout phase potentially looking at 2650.
There is also the US stock market opening tonight, and the overall capital performance on Monday was quite strong, so it is expected that the US stock market will continue to drive the market higher. Therefore, if considering a short position, it is advisable to pay attention to the pressure area near 2686, which has a high turnover rate and is currently a strong potential resistance level.
Altcoin
Recently, the market has seen altcoins being halved, halved, and halved again, with WCT and MASK preceding ZKJ/KOGE. Those operating in altcoins recently need to be cautious; at this rate, market sentiment will inevitably collapse! Aside from BTC/ETH/SOL/LTC and other old mainstream coins being relatively strong, the new altcoins in the past two years have basically been on a downward trend!
The future should no longer be a season of comprehensive imitation, but rather a season of localized hotspots (few high-consensus, high-liquidity targets). What should emerge more is the 'fundamental season', where truly innovative, valuable, and continuously improving projects will receive the most attention and capital support.
150 million US dollars worth of tokens unlocking, long or short?
In this round of unlocking, the proportion of $ZK unlocking is close to 21%, and $LISTA has also reached nearly 20%. However, in terms of actual release amounts, the projects that could significantly impact the market are still those like $ZK, $ZKJ, and $ARB, which have a single unlocking amount exceeding 30 million USD.
Friends who want to participate in short-term trading are advised to refer to this unlocking chart first, so as not to hit the peak selling pressure just after entering the market. Of course, shorting is also an option, the key is to watch the rhythm.
Why did ZKJ and KOGE crash together?
The ZKJ and KOGE projects created the ZKJ/KOGE dual-token pool on PancakeSwap 16 days ago (accumulating 30 million USDT equivalent tokens) which attracted studios to inflate trading volume, but the liquidity of KOGE's BNB and USDT pools was insufficient, causing large holders to be unable to exit directly and could only exchange KOGE for ZKJ and then swap for BNB or U, ultimately triggering a correlated decline.
There’s also a downside: both of these are Alpha altcoins, and once one coin’s price crashes, it can easily trigger the sale of the other coin. As a result, if you crash, I also crash, both are soaked.
Three major reasons for massive losses in the crypto space:
Emotional trading by chasing highs and cutting losses cannot withstand corrections, and when opportunities arise, there’s no capital to enter; in the current market, remember 'take profit while you can, secure your gains', sell in batches during big rises, and buy in batches during big falls, protect your principal, seek steady wins, so you can survive in the crypto space and seize future opportunities.
