Ethereum stands at a crossroads: institutional bottom-fishing fails to ward off hidden risks, $2879 may be a short-term peak.

Whales are lurking, regulators are poised, a long-short squeeze for ETH is quietly unfolding at $2550.

News aspect: good news has been exhausted, and bad news is surfacing.

  1. Institution 'open cards' VS regulatory 'hidden arrows'

    • BlackRock's $160 million bottom-fishing (cost about $3300-$3500) seems favorable, but institutional holding costs are significantly higher than the current price, lacking short-term upward momentum.

    • Staking ETF faces SEC death penalty: if the SEC determines staking returns as 'interest on securities', ETH may plummet to $2300. BlackRock's 50-person lobbying team may not alter policy risks; June's ruling is a time bomb.

  2. There are tricks behind capital siphoning.
    ETF has seen a net inflow of $321 million for 12 consecutive days, butthe ETH balance on exchanges has unexpectedly increased by 1.05%., indicating retail investors are following in, forming a 'counterparty' to institutions; once positive news exhausts, a stampede may easily occur.

Technical aspect: overbought dead cross resonance, $2879 may be a hard ceiling.

  1. Indicator high-risk warning

    • MACD high position death cross is emerging: the current difference between DIF (29.84) and DEA (5.95) is narrowing, red bars are decreasing, and upward momentum is waning.

    • RSI daily line reaches the overbought zone at 75, derivative funding rates soar to 0.03%, leveraged long positions are crowded, correction is imminent.

  2. On-chain liquidation powder keg

    • $2500-$2600 gathers $1.2 billion in leveraged longs; if it falls below the $2500 support, it will trigger a $5.32 billion chain liquidation, accelerating the decline.

    • Whales have hoarded 1.2 million ETH for two weeks (cost $2400), floating profit exceeds 6%, strong motivation to take profits.

When even BlackRock has become a 'stuck plate', should retail investors shoot at longs or shorts? Still troubled by the price levels? Follow the professional team of DaD for precise analysis of price strategies.$ETH #ETH走势分析