Major event! U.S. policy bombshell ignites the market.
In the early hours of today, Trump's and Treasury Secretary Bessent's dual statements completely ignited the market. BTC surged to 108,000 USDT amid optimistic sentiments about easing China-U.S. relations, but quickly fell back to around 106,300 USDT. Behind this rollercoaster market is the intense collision of policy games and market sentiment - amidst the bullish frenzy lies a short trap; the next steps must focus on three core logics.
Policy trends: Rate cuts, tariffs, and debt ceiling are tightening.
Trump's "interest rate stick": verbally lowering rates while actually applying pressure.
"Powell must be forced to do something!" Trump called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 1-2 percentage points today, stating, "High rates are putting immense pressure on debt payments." This statement directly raised market expectations for a rate cut in September, with CME interest rate futures showing an increase in the probability of a cut to 78%. But the question arises: can a rate cut really save the market?
Historical data shows that Trump’s tariff policy in 2024 caused BTC to plummet 8% to 76,000 USDT in a single day, while after the signing of the China-U.S. agreement in May 2025, BTC soared to 107,000 USDT. This indicates that while rate cut expectations may be beneficial in the short term, if compounded with tariff and debt issues, it can actually amplify market volatility.
Bessent's "stablecoin conspiracy": A new tool for dollar hegemony.
Treasury Secretary Bessent threw out a key signal today: "Stablecoins will solidify the dollar's hegemony." Combined with the legislative process of the (stablecoin bill) he previously promoted, this suggests that the U.S. government is attempting to incorporate compliant stablecoins into the dollar system, indirectly providing a liquidity entry point for assets like BTC. However, the hidden danger is: regulatory arbitrage may trigger centralization risks - if the U.S. controls on-chain funds through stablecoins, the narrative of BTC's "anti-censorship" may be weakened.
August life-and-death line: Tariff suspension and debt ceiling.
Bessent mentioned that "August may mark the end of tariff suspension on China," while Trump simultaneously threatened that "auto tariffs are about to increase." If these two time bombs explode, they will directly impact the global supply chain. More critically, the debt ceiling crisis has been brought to the forefront: "Not raising the ceiling = 2008 replay." Currently, the scale of U.S. national debt has reached 36 trillion dollars; if a technical default occurs, BTC may replicate the "black swan event" of 2024 - a 20% drop in a single week.
Market reaction: Institutions buy the dip with one hand and hedge with the other.
Data doesn't lie:
On-chain chip distribution: Glassnode monitoring shows that over 120,000 BTC have accumulated in the range of 105,000-108,000 USDT, but whale addresses (holding ≥10,000 BTC) have seen a net outflow of 32,000 BTC in the past three days, indicating that major players are distributing at high levels.
Options market: Deribit data shows that the open interest of 100,000 USDT put options expiring at the end of July surged by 240%, with short positions betting on a short-term pullback.
Funding rate: Binance perpetual contract funding rates remain at 0.05%, showing no extreme greed signals, but OKX quarterly contract premiums have shrunk to 1.2%, indicating a decline in bullish momentum.
Personal opinion: This wave of rally is essentially a "news market" lacking fundamental support. Rate cut expectations and easing of China-U.S. relations can only restore sentiment, but BTC's market capitalization ratio is still below 45% (CoinMarketCap data), and the altcoin bleed effect has not ended. Be wary of major players using good news to unload.
Long vs. short: Is 108,000 the top or a continuation?
Key technical levels:
Weekly level: BTC has broken through the previous high of 107,000 USDT before November 2024, but the RSI (56) has not entered the overbought zone, and the MACD golden cross has not yet been confirmed. The upper space depends on the strength of policy implementation.
4-hour cycle: MFI (Money Flow Index) falls below 50, OBV (On-Balance Volume) levels off. If it breaks below the 105,800 USDT support, it may retest 103,000 USDT.
Ultimate deduction: Must break 120,000 before August?
Conclusion: In the short term (1-2 weeks), expect a volatile correction; in the medium term (before August), expect bullish sentiment up to 120,000 USDT. Core basis:
Policy dividend release: If the (stablecoin bill) passes before August, compliant funds entering the market will unlock a liquidity ceiling.
Macro variables shift: Federal Reserve rate cut + debt ceiling delay (probability 65%), risk assets repricing.
On-chain cycle signal: The 14th month after Bitcoin halving is typically the starting point of a major upward wave (historical data backtesting).
Risk warning: If the China-U.S. tariff war restarts or debt negotiations fail, BTC may fall below the support of 90,000 USDT.
Tonight at 20:00, Bessent will attend a Senate hearing. Will he release solid evidence for the "August legislation"? Stay tuned to the Binance livestream for real-time policy interpretations!
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