The window for BTC price change has opened, and the battle between bulls and bears is imminent!
【Key Data Overview】
Price Range: Currently, BTC is consolidating at 105,400 USDT, with 15-minute trading volume shrinking to a recent low, and the 4-hour BOLL bandwidth narrowing to 711 USDT, a one-sided market may emerge within 24 hours.
Bull-Bear Game: The long-short ratio on exchange contracts has dropped to 0.82, retail investors are panic selling, but whales are increasing their holdings by 2,300 BTC (approximately 240 million USD), suggesting that the main force may be preparing for a “short squeeze” market.
Macro Disturbance: The Federal Reserve has released hawkish signals, causing a short-term flash drop to 104,800 USDT, but expectations for an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank are heating up, and some capital may use BTC to hedge against Euro depreciation risk.
【Market Change Simulation and Strategy】
Bullish Logic (60%)
Trigger Condition: Stabilize above 105,800 USDT and break through the resistance level of 106,200 (coinciding with the daily MA30 and previous high).
Target: 107,500 (previous daily high) → 110,000 (psychological level), with whales accumulating and high short leverage, the main force has sufficient momentum to push prices up for liquidation.
Bearish Risk (40%)
Trigger Condition: Losing the support level of 105,000 (4-hour BOLL lower band), if it closes below this level on the 4-hour chart, it may drop to 103,500 (weekly MA60).
Basis: Expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve suppress risk assets, but there is strong institutional support below 100,000 USDT.
Conclusion: BTC is at the end of a triangular convergence, and I personally tend to believe that the main force will initiate a weekly rebound after washing out positions due to negative news. It is recommended to closely monitor the breakout direction of the 105,000-106,200 range and to strictly set stop-loss.
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