Here is a deep analysis of BTC's recent decline of 3.54%, combining news and technical aspects, and outlook for future market trends:
News-driven factors
1. Inflation expectations rise
- US core CPI in May rose 3.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, raising market concerns over the delay of Fed rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and suppressing risk assets.
2. ETF fund inflows slow down
- Net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have nearly stalled for three consecutive days (less than $100 million per day from June 10-12), indicating weakened institutional buying momentum.
3. Mt. Gox repayment initiated
- The bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox announced it will start repaying creditors with 140,000 BTC (approximately $9 billion) from July, causing potential selling pressure that triggers market panic.
- German police transferred 750 BTC from wallets to exchanges, increasing the short-term selling expectations.
4. German government transfers BTC
Key technical signals
1. Resistance area breakout failed
- Multiple attempts to break the strong resistance at $72,000 failed, forming a daily 'double top' structure, triggering long position stop-losses.
2. Indicators weakening
- The daily MACD has crossed below zero, and the RSI has fallen to a neutral range of 45, indicating a bearish short-term momentum.
3. Key support has been lost
- A significant drop below $68,000 neckline (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level) opens up downward space to $65,000.
Future market trend projection
Short term (1-2 weeks):
- Downside focus on $65,000 (200-day moving average + previous low platform), if it falls below, it may accelerate a drop to $60,000;
- A rebound needs to stabilize above $67,500 (50 EMA on 4-hour chart) to alleviate selling pressure.
Medium term:
- If the Fed cuts rates in September, combined with the listing of Ethereum ETFs, it could restart the bull market;
- The actual sell-off scale of Mt. Gox (expected to be less than $50 million daily) may be lower than expected, and there could be a recovery opportunity after the panic subsides.
Strategic advice:
Focus on short-term observation, closely monitor the strength of the $65,000 support and ETF fund flows. If a recovery above $68,000 occurs with strong volume, consider light positions for rebound; medium-term bull market logic remains intact, and the sharp decline creates a buying opportunity.
Key risk warning: If this Friday's US PPI data and Fed interest rate decision release hawkish signals, it may trigger a second bottoming.
#市场波动，加仓还是观望？
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