News-driven incentives

  1. Regulatory pressure escalates

    • On June 11, the South Korean Financial Supervisory Service warned Binance's Korean branch, questioning its operation without a license, triggering panic selling in the Asian market.

    • The ongoing lawsuit by the US SEC against BUSD continues to suppress market sentiment, with BNB being the most affected as the core asset of the Binance ecosystem.

  2. Negative transmission within the ecosystem

    • The TVL on the BNB Chain decreased by 5.2% over the week, combined with the postponement of PancakeSwap V4's launch, weakening short-term expectations for ecosystem empowerment.

Key technical breakdown

  1. Key support lost

    • Intraday volume broke below the $620 weekly support level (original upper boundary of the 1-5 month trading range), triggering a surge of programmed stop-loss orders.

    • The 4-hour chart forms a 'Descending Three Methods' continuation pattern, with the MACD histogram crossing below the zero axis, indicating a short-term bearish trend.

  2. On-chain data anomalies

    • A giant whale address (holding >100,000 BNB) net transferred 370,000 BNB to exchanges in the last 24 hours (approximately $230 million), creating the largest single-day selling pressure this month (Santiment data).

Market direction speculation

  • Short-term downside risk: If it fails to quickly recover to $620, it may test $580 (200-day moving average + Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level).

  • Necessary conditions for reversal:
    1. Binance successfully resolves the South Korean regulatory crisis;
    2. BNB Chain ecosystem TVL increases by over 3% week-on-week to rebuild confidence;
    3. Bitcoin stabilizing at $71,000 leads to a rebound in the Altcoin sector.

  • Mid-term observation point: If the BNB burn mechanism exceeds expectations, it may become a catalyst for a rebound, but a breakthrough above $650 is needed to confirm a trend reversal.

Strategy tip: Current bearish momentum has not exhausted, be cautious when buying the dip, and prioritize observing the 580-600 range for long-short battles.

$BTC


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