Recently, Sponge has warned about market risks. Bitcoin has slightly retreated to around 107.7k, Ethereum has once again fallen below 2800, and today all altcoins are in the green, with blood flowing like a river. In the last 24 hours, a total of 112,143 people globally have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $328 million. Yesterday, Sponge warned: Bitcoin is currently showing a weekly top divergence, recommending to short at highs around 110k-113k.
Sponge's naked long on PEPE made a profit of 109%! Accurately captured the recovery market! Yesterday's reminder for PEPE/ETH retraced to the support area, Sponge directly executed a naked long, setting stop loss at MA200, accurately positioned, and entered without thinking! Last night PEPE surged all the way to 0.00001345, with profits more than doubling in just one day! Those who kept up with the rhythm enjoyed this wave!
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin dropped to a low of 107,320 before stopping its decline and rebounding. The daily MA7 (107,500) has provided short-term support. However, whether this rebound is valid still depends on tonight's PPI data and the performance of US stocks. If it can hold at 106,800, there is still hope; to turn strong, it must surpass 110,700!
Has Bitcoin peaked?
In the past 24 hours, short-term holders have sold approximately 21,000 bitcoins to exchanges, still below the historical average. Historically, when the average sell-off exceeds 40,000 coins, it often indicates a significant increase in the probability of a phase top appearing.
I can only say that there are signs in this direction, but it is not absolute. There will still be a process of repeated fluctuations, and even a process of rising sharply. However, if this surge really happens, in Sweet Dream's view, it may be the last surge before the official announcement of the interest rate cut, after all, the day when the interest rate cut is announced will probably be the beginning of the market's recharging.
Today, we will see how far the rebound can go?
Set 109,000 as a defensive position, and the strategy is to short at highs, paying attention to the pressure range above [108200-108500]. The support below is around 107300. Once it falls below this again, the first target is 106800, with a further target at 106000.
Starting from 106,000, I will consider gradually laying out long positions, as this position is likely the target area for this adjustment. Of course, if the market rebounds without touching 106,000 and successfully stabilizes above 109,000, it would mean that the adjustment may have ended early.
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH's small-scale trend is slightly stronger, with the price still maintaining above 2720. My best expectation for ETH is to short near 2720. Currently, the large-scale trend has broken out of the consolidation range and is beginning to move upward. The next likely target is around 3k. So this downward adjustment is likely to push up again.
Long strategy:
We are placing long orders in the 2720-2700 range, with stop loss set around 2645-2660, and the target expectation is to capture an upward space of over 300 dollars.
Short strategy:
You can try to place short orders in the 2820-2850 range, but be careful to control your position and avoid being aggressive. ETH's trend is relatively strong, and there is a possibility of continuing to rise after consolidating in the current area. If you want to participate in shorting, it is more advisable to pay attention to opportunities in relatively weaker altcoins.
$RVN
Generally, daily charts with this kind of trend are basically lacking a big bullish candle, and the price increase won't be too small. You can place a long order around 0.0205 or enter the spot market! The target can at least reach 0.026, with the weekly level already breaking through, the only concern is that a market correction may drag down altcoins.
Yesterday, the chain was very lively, led by aura, various memes showed rebound trends, such as labubu, king, moonpig, etc., all having significant rebounds, but currently following the market's pullback.
ETH: In recent days, there has been a lack of new hot coins on-chain, and many old coins have also been continuously declining, especially the overall weakness of the MATT system: SNIBBU has dropped back to a market cap of 2 million, and GASS Cat has also retraced to below 10 million. As for Frog, Skull, Mouse, and Mother PEPE, they are approaching a dead market state, basically losing liquidity. Only projects that survive this round of market fluctuations will have the chance to compete for the next 'On-chain Big Brother'. From the current trend, it seems that only ZEUS Dog and GASS Cat still have a glimmer of hope.
The overall zeroing rate of ETH chain is relatively high, funds are clearly fleeing, and the downward momentum is fierce. Coupled with the lack of new themes, it's hard to hold up the banner of a rebound in the short term.
BSC chain: The general feeling is that it’s a simple model for several reasons: ① Chinese Chain: Our news is very close to the manipulators; ② The chain is slow, leading to a slow pace and a more relaxed operation; ③ Clear valuations, cz forwarding hundreds of thousands, changing avatars for millions, going on alpha for tens of millions; ④ Bottom-up projects: Rarely do strong manipulators disrupt valuation benchmarks.