⁃ BTC to the moon.
⁃ BTC will have a new ATH
⁃ The US has an agreement with China already
⁃ Trăm and Lon have made peace; these two are just acting to gather support....
These are the things I've been hearing the most in recent days. But has the world really stabilized?
From my personal point of view, I call this period “Indefinite”. This means everything is vague and uncertain. From macro, historical cycles, global politics to fiscal policies, everything is inconsistent with each other.
If we look at the history of the old cycles, this year will be the last year of the bull cycle. And the pattern is currently forming two peaks according to the monthly timeframe. However, this year is very different from previous cycles, as we have the US market supporting crypto, with large funds buying and holding BTC daily.
But on the other hand, we have the Fed keeping interest rates high, causing assets without cash flow to rise in price.
“History will always be right until we have a new history”
“Perhaps” this time history will change. “Perhaps” it will not be a 4-year cycle anymore but a longer cycle. None of us can predict how it will unfold. After all, crypto, stocks, or any other assets are just a game of the house. We are the players in the game where the house deals the cards and also creates the rules.
So all those who are shouting for a new ATH, ALTSS, or anything else out there are just guessing. After all, the odds are 50/50, so one side is bound to be right, right?
Another thing that people often refer to when shouting for ALTSS is that BTC.D is still high —> there is still an opportunity for ALTSS when it drops and cash flow shifts from BTC to ALTCOIN.
I also once hoped for that. But recently, when sitting down and reassessing, I have come to think like this.
What if ALTSS no longer exists? When the altcoin market has reached a huge number, millions of junk coins created with almost zero value. Besides, this cycle has large funds participating, so the game will only tilt towards BTC. Therefore, it’s possible that there will no longer be a flow of money from BTC to ALTCOIN, and BTC.D will always remain high as it is now. And BTC.D will only be the reason for the house to maintain our belief in an ALTSS in the future. What will happen then???
Next is the story of Lon vs Trăm. Personally, I don't believe these two are just acting to gather support. Because if it was just a performance, there are many ways to do it without dragging the current US President into the scandal involving billionaire Sean “Diddy” Combs. The tycoons or politicians are most concerned about their image, not the daily needs like we are. Just for a little money, destroying their entire image and reputation when the market hasn't dropped much, I don't think these two are breaking even, let alone making a lot of money.
As for Lon's apology to Trăm, that is just a natural thing. The basic thing that a normal person like us knows is “not to outshine the boss at work”. If you don’t want to be fired. In this case, Lon is doing business on American soil while Trăm is the current US President, the most powerful person in the world, who can crush Lon with a few executive orders. So from the start, Lon was wrong, and having to bow to Trăm is a matter that doesn’t need to be debated here.
Next is the agreement between China and the US. Have these two found a balance? Has the world returned to its usual operating orbit?
So my answer is “Definitely” no for it to be square. The US and China simply have sectors and products that they can't immediately give up like (rare earths, electronic chips, high technology...) so these two have an agreement to give each other time to ease, then they will look for alternatives and gradually move away from each other; it won’t be like the old days anymore.
The US must choke China just like it did with Japan in the 90s to protect its position as the number one superpower globally. Therefore, my personal view is that the world in the coming years will change a lot. Perhaps it will be another major transformation since the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Conclusion:
So what have I been doing during this period?
I sit still, doing nothing. In the crypto sector, I only hold top coins, having given up all altcoins. I will wait to see how the market unfolds. If the two-peak pattern is confirmed and BTC goes down like the previous cycle, you will see that I am the first to run. But if BTC has a new peak, breaks the line connecting the peaks on the monthly timeframe and continues to have new highs, then I will be rich 😆
If you are reading this far, I believe you are all serious investors in this market, not just looking to see which way to go long or short. And I firmly believe that with such seriousness and eagerness to learn, success in this financial market will just be a matter of time for you.
P/s: all my opinions are personal views, with the desire to share with everyone. I have no intention of preaching or putting anyone down. I just hope to help someone out there who is confused on their investment journey, and for me, that is the fate that is sowing seeds.
Finally, I wish all of us success on our investment journey as well as finding our own “Happiness”. Remember, in this market, don’t trust anyone blindly. Read to reflect, to think, to learn, and then make your own decisions 🙆