Today, Bitcoin's cryptocurrency market has fallen across the board, and the three major U.S. stock indices and Nasdaq technology stocks also could not escape. The main reason for this market-wide decline is Israel's sudden airstrikes against Iran, deploying hundreds of drones to attack Iranian nuclear facilities and nuclear scientists, resulting in dozens of deaths. Iran immediately issued a statement of retaliation, and this sudden event instantly triggered panic in the financial markets.
Iran also responded quickly, stating that it would retaliate, instantly causing severe turmoil, but there is no need to panic too much. Today's decline is a typical reaction to sudden negative news, unrelated to the market's bull trend.
As long as a full-scale Third World War does not break out, localized conflicts have only a short-term impact on financial markets.
Looking at the capital situation within the cryptocurrency market itself, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net inflow of nearly $1 billion in the last four days, with over $80 million flowing in just yesterday. This clearly shows that the funds in the cryptocurrency market have not panicked due to the sudden events; instead, they are continuously flowing in, and the foundation of the bull market has not changed due to the conflict between Israel and Iran.
The conflict between Israel and Iran had the most significant impact on the capital market on the first day. As time passes, its influence will gradually weaken. The fundamentals of Bitcoin have not changed. For us, we just need to patiently wait for the market to digest the impact of this sudden event.
In terms of macro data, last night's PPI data was below expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims was higher than expected, indicating that while inflation is decreasing, employment data is also poor. These two data points have greatly increased interest rate cut expectations. Trump has started calling on Powell to cut rates by 200 basis points. Currently, there is a general expectation of two rate cuts within the year, with CME expecting nearly a 30% probability of three rate cuts. Therefore, the cryptocurrency market in the second half of the year still has potential benefits from rate cuts; only rate cuts can alleviate and change the current market situation.
The altcoin market also saw changes last night. The SEC's previous regulations have changed. They used to regulate decentralized finance (DeFi) projects and token custody, but this has now been officially canceled. The troubles with XRP have also been resolved. The SEC and XRP company have been in court for so long, but they finally reached a settlement. Moreover, the commonly used stablecoin USDC can now also be used on the XRP network.
Additionally, it seems we still have to wait for ETF altcoins. Coins like DOGE, AVAX, and HBAR, which want to launch ETFs, have had their approvals delayed by the SEC, so it's temporarily not looking good. Furthermore, listed companies have started using stablecoins. The well-known e-commerce platform Shopify has partnered with Coinbase and payment company Stripe to prepare for merchants to directly accept payments in stablecoins like USDC. These news items are actually signaling to us where the hot money in altcoins is going and which directions are the focus.
DEFI, stablecoins, RWA, ETFs, memes, public chains, and maybe add AI and DePIN. Therefore, the next play for altcoins is to find the leading players in each track to buy.
Many friends are asking which altcoins can be laid out in response to the decline caused by this wave of war.
In fact, during this cycle, Crab Boss told everyone early on that there are not many secondary markers worth playing at the moment. The two previously emphasized, Pepe and Sui, can be operated according to the points mentioned in previous articles. Both long-term and swing trades are workable. Once Pepe falls below 1, I will definitely notify the group.
Finally, let's put down the altcoin markers from the May 31 article.
From a big cycle perspective, there has not been a phase without interest rate cut expectations in the cryptocurrency market, and the sustainability has always been low. Therefore, during this phase, if you can handle or understand the swings, such as making 30% on strong altcoins or following the market to make 10% on weak ones, those who understand it can proceed. However, if you are worried about a sudden market crash, you should refrain from operating for now.
Just wait for the market to come out with interest rate cut expectations to buy the dip. There is a high probability of benefiting from the main rising wave influenced by rate cuts, so how to operate now depends on your own choices. Trading is related to your personality; if you are impatient and cannot stand being idle, then you can play in swings, but you must strictly select strong markers and not be greedy. When it's time to leave, you must leave; otherwise, it will result in profit withdrawal or even being trapped.
Just be patient and wait for the bottom signal of the big cycle.
Brothers, gather in the chat room quickly:
