🌊Opening Quote：
"When the market rises, focus on momentum; when it falls, focus on quality—after SHELL's revelry, is it the pop of a bubble or the accumulation of value?"
Market Analysis: Good news is fully priced in, momentum is exhausted
Technical Narrative Cooling Down
MyShell surged 70% in early May due to MCP integration, but recently lacks new developments, and the market's enthusiasm for AI + Web3 has significantly declined. Community discussion volume has plummeted (referencing the explosive 42x oversubscription in February), the pace of ecological expansion has slowed, and funds have shifted towards mainstream chain narratives like SOL and ETH.
Concerns About Unlocking and Selling Pressure
According to token economics, SHELL's circulation is only 27%, and team and investor locked tokens will gradually be released over the next 3-4 years. The current price has dropped below the cost price of IDO participants (approximately $0.27), and if large holders sell to stop losses, it may trigger a stampede.
Market Environment Cooling Down
Bitcoin is oscillating at high levels (around $110,000), and funds are clearly flowing back from altcoins to BTC. The enthusiasm for the AI sector is being diverted by meme coins and DeFi (such as HYPE, CRYBB, etc.), leaving SHELL without independent market support.
Technical Analysis: Heightened Breakdown Risk
Key Signals in the Four-Hour K-Line
Support Lost: The current price of 0.1683 is close to the historical lowest point of 0.1684; if it falls below this, it opens up downward space, targeting the 0.12-0.15 range (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).
Volume Shrinking: Trading volume continues to decrease during rebounds (referencing on-chain data), with a clear bearish dominance.
Indicator Divergence: After the MACD death cross, it is close to the zero axis, while RSI hovers in the 30 oversold zone without rebound momentum, indicating a typical weak oscillation pattern.
Key Resistance Pressures
The 0.17-0.18 range forms a dense accumulation zone (with chips piling up after the explosive rise in February), and repeated rebounds have failed, confirming the effectiveness of resistance. The upper levels of 0.20 (psychological barrier) and 0.24 (previous high neckline) constitute a strong resistance zone.
🔮Closing Hook：
"When the tide goes out, don’t be the last fish to take the bait—SHELL's next stop, is it a deep squat for strength or a free fall? Follow me, I will sound the alarm for you before the crash!"
