When Bitcoin reignites bullish enthusiasm and the market begins to stir, those high-volatility assets that were once knocked back to their original state re-enter the stage. HYPE, without a doubt, is the most eye-catching of them all.
On June 9, Bitcoin recorded its longest bullish candle in a month, with a single-day increase of 4%. Against the backdrop of BTC's short-term rebound, HYPE also experienced explosive growth, rising by 11.22%, strongly returning above $39, closing at $39.171—just a step away from its historical high.
This is #hype making its second attempt to break through $40 in June 2024, with the previous two attempts ending without success amid market weakness and leverage liquidations. This time, the market seems different.
Price vs Leverage: OI hits a new high, and the $40 resistance is facing a pressure test.
Data shows that during this rise, HYPE's open interest (OI) surged by 11.9%, breaking through $1.69 billion, reaching a historical high. More importantly, this figure has exceeded the peak of positions when it last hit the $39.12 high.
What does this indicate? Smart money is positioning itself in advance, betting on the key breakout at $40.
But don't forget, the last time the market was like this: prices hit new highs, and OI surged in sync. What was the result? In just five days, the price dropped from $39 directly back to $31, with open interest shrinking by over 20%.
Will this replicate the script of 'the heights are cold'? The key is not in the technicals, but in the strength of confidence and expectations.
Technical indicators: superficially stable, but the 'internal skills' are still being honed.
From a lower time frame perspective, although HYPE's RSI is close to the overbought area, it has not gone out of control and remains within a reasonable range. Meanwhile, indicators like MACD are showing initial bullish crosses, and market momentum is gradually strengthening.
However, the current price structure of HYPE is still in a volatile range, with significant resistance above $40. Technical analysts need to see increased trading volume and a more dispersed OI distribution before they can be confident that the breakout is valid.
This is also why many professional traders use intelligent data platforms like Mlion.ai to assist in judgment: by analyzing candlestick structures and position distribution trends through 'AI Strategy Visualization', and monitoring fund flows and whale behavior with 'On-Chain Address Analysis', they can provide early warnings for potential leverage liquidations and false breakouts.
Why does HYPE frequently experience 'failed peaks'?
The answer lies in: HYPE's liquidity is highly concentrated in the derivatives market, with limited support in the spot market.
In previous rounds of upswing, every time OI surged and the price approached $40, a typical 'overheated structure' would appear:
Bullish funding rates are rising, and long costs are increasing;
Whale accounts are building large positions but quickly withdraw after the price falls;
The market's tolerance for pullbacks is decreasing, triggering dense liquidations;
Panic sentiment rebounds, and prices quickly adjust.
This means that as long as BTC oscillates, HYPE itself is very likely to form a 'bullish graveyard'.
BTC remains a key variable; can HYPE create an independent market trend?
Currently, HYPE's 'lifeline' still hinges on Bitcoin. As long as BTC holds above $109,000, or even breaks the $110,000 mark, then HYPE's $40 is likely to break through quickly.
But to truly stabilize at $40 and enter the price discovery range? A stronger fundamental support and structural capital flow is the answer.
This is also why experienced investors are now paying attention to on-chain chip changes and whale positioning—such as quickly identifying buying opportunities for HYPE top addresses using Mlion.ai's 'On-Chain Address Analysis' and assessing the indirect impact of macro market trends on small-cap fund flows with 'News Deep Analysis'.
Conclusion: After the frenzy, calm judgment is the source of long-term win rates.
Can HYPE break through $40? In the short term, look at BTC; in the medium term, look at the position structure; in the long term, it depends on whether the narrative of the project itself holds.
This rise may not be the end but the beginning of a new round of capital games. If you want to truly grasp the operational rhythm of 'capital-sensitive assets' like HYPE, let AI assist you—by tracking the real signals behind each market movement through AI Strategy Visualization, news interpretation, and data dashboards on Mlion.ai, rather than being misled by FOMO emotions.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Trading in digital assets carries high risks; please operate cautiously.