While most of the market is celebrating ETH's return above the $2800 mark, savvy traders have begun to be alert: Is this seemingly smooth rise stepping into a potential supply resistance zone?
Ethereum [ETH] has recently continued to strengthen, successfully breaking through two key resistance areas at $2716 and $2788, forming short-term support at $2774, and continuously pushing upwards above $2800. Many technical indicators are releasing strong bullish signals, and sentiment is quickly tilting towards optimism.
But the question is—Is this really the moment for mindless long positions?
1. ETH staking hits a new high, ETF expectations heat up again.
From an on-chain fundamental perspective, Ethereum is entering a new transformation cycle.
According to the latest data, there are currently 34.8 million ETH staked, accounting for nearly 30% of the circulating supply, which has exceeded the historical peak in November 2024. Combined with the policy game expectations of spot ETH staking ETFs, the market is gradually turning towards a bullish logic: the supply side continues to tighten, coupled with the potential entry of compliant funds, these variables are seen as fuel for ETH to break the $3000 mark.
Mlion.ai's on-chain address analysis shows that the staking trend is not due to a single whale's behavior, but rather the sustained inflow of multiple medium-sized wallet groups. This structural participation means that the support strength for ETH price corrections is increasing.
2. The price is approaching the 'supply zone', and a reversal may be brewing.
However, the technical side does not completely favor the bulls.
As early as mid-February, ETH faced intense selling pressure between $2885 and $2915, forming a dense supply resistance area. The current price is again approaching this key zone, and the market is entering a highly sensitive range.
More critically, according to Mlion.ai's rapid news deep analysis model's 'market rhythm deconstruction' prompt, the long positions have surged in the past 48 hours, but the spot trading volume has not followed suit, indicating that leveraged funds may be dominating the short-term market, and once faced with reverse fluctuations, a wave of liquidations could quickly trigger volatility.
In terms of technical indicators, MACD is still in the positive zone, but initial signs of a top divergence have appeared; RSI is close to the overbought area but has not further strengthened, instead showing a sideways trend above $2800.
3. Trader's strategy: It's not about going long or short, but about choosing the right timing.
In this sensitive range, overheated sentiment often accompanies golden opportunities for reverse operations. RektProof's judgment is quite valuable for reference: If the price fails to break through $2915 and reverses, dropping below $2774 will constitute a short signal, and bears can aim for the $2620-$2680 range as a short-term target.
However, if ETH strongly stands above $2915, it will enter a tug-of-war phase at the psychologically critical level of $3000. If BTC can further challenge $110,000 and drive OBV upward, it is not ruled out that ETH could break through and form a medium-term acceleration.
Mlion.ai's AI strategy charting feature can automatically identify dense chip areas and key moving average resistance levels based on the K-line structure uploaded by users before and after such turning points, generating phased trading suggestions to help users switch operation directions in a timely manner.
4. Summary: Is this wave of ETH's rise a 'false breakout'?
The rise of Ethereum seems smooth, but underlying variables are intertwined:
On-chain data shows that funds are locking up ETH, which is a long-term bullish signal;
Technical structure indicates significant supply pressure ahead, and the market may experience severe fluctuations;
Macroeconomic policy variables (such as ETF approvals and Federal Reserve policies) also determine whether ETH can truly stabilize above $3000.
At this moment, ETH stands at the critical point of divergence between bulls and bears. At such a stage, the ability to promptly identify whether it is a 'breakout confirmation' or a 'false breakout reversal' is the core determinant of profit and loss.
Tip: Using Mlion.ai's cryptocurrency price prediction + AI research report combination tool can help combine on-chain behavior, market sentiment, and technical trends to assist in judging the directional choice of such high-sensitivity areas. This is particularly suitable for making quick decisions and avoiding risks in markets wavering between 'true and false breakouts'.
Disclaimer: The above content is for informational reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, so please maintain independent thinking and risk control capability.
