Breaking! US-China trade giants secretly confront in London, global markets hold their breath! This negotiation, which affects the nerves of the world economy, has already released subtle signals on its first day—Trump's rare statement that 'things are going well', but the hardline attitude of the Chinese representatives leaves the market full of suspense regarding the final outcome. From the perspective of the game pattern, the most likely scenario is a 'limited breakthrough': the US may relax export restrictions on mid-range chips from Nvidia in exchange for China restoring temporary rare earth supplies to three major US automakers and extending the tariff ceasefire period by 90 days. However, if the EDA software regulations led by US Commerce Secretary Raimondo and the ban on Huawei's Ascend chips are not eased, negotiations in the technology sector could likely become deadlocked.

The butterfly effect on the cryptocurrency market has already emerged:

• If a phased agreement is reached, the rebound in global risk appetite may lead to a short-term influx of funds from cryptocurrencies back to traditional markets. Historical data shows that in January 2024, during the window period of US-China negotiations, Bitcoin rose by 22% in a single month, but funds briefly withdrew after the agreement was reached. However, institutions like BlackRock have recently increased their positions in BTC, and New Hampshire has just passed the country's first cryptocurrency strategic reserve bill, potentially bringing in hundreds of millions of dollars to offset some selling pressure.

• If negotiations collapse, Bitcoin's property as a 'digital neutral asset' will be strengthened. After Trump announced increased tariffs in April 2025, Bitcoin fell 8% in the short term, but quickly rebounded by 12% within two weeks, demonstrating its 'desensitization' to geopolitical risks. Standard Chartered Bank analysts further hinted that if the deadlock continues, Bitcoin’s year-end target price could be raised to $200,000.

It is noteworthy that the cryptocurrency market has recently preemptively digested some risks: before the negotiation news landed in May, Bitcoin only fell 0.3% when US stocks plummeted, while the net inflow of over $500 million into BlackRock's ETF injected long-term confidence into the market. If the New Hampshire bill is fully implemented, it could become an 'external variable' in the negotiations—based on the state's budget of $15.4 billion, up to $770 million in funds entering the market could directly boost market liquidity.

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