Major data ignites the market! The US May CPI year-on-year is 3.3%, lower than expected, and core inflation hits a three-year low, creating an opening for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates! This historic cooling directly sparks a celebration in the cryptocurrency sector: Bitcoin surges 3.2% to exceed $69,457, DeFi locked assets soar, and the RWA sector welcomes trillion-level opportunities!
Critical point of Federal Reserve policy shift
1. Countdown to interest rate cuts begins
Federal funds futures show that the probability of a rate cut in September has jumped to 70%. Although Powell emphasizes 'relying on data', the market has already priced in two rate cuts within the year. If the CPI continues to decline in June-August, the September meeting may become the starting point for a policy shift.
2. Intensified hawk-dove battle
Internal conflicts escalate: some officials are concerned about inflation in the service sector (housing, healthcare still above 5%) and strong non-farm data (an increase of 272,000 jobs), advocating for a delay in easing; while doves believe the tariff transmission effect is weakening, and there is a need to guard against a hard landing of the economy. The August Jackson Hole meeting will be a key turning point.
3. Reconstructing long-term interest rate expectations
The Federal Reserve has raised the neutral interest rate to 2.8%, indicating a normalization of high interest rates. This has caused the US Treasury yield curve to steepen, which may suppress the risk premium in cryptocurrency valuation models.
The cryptocurrency sector welcomes a strategic opportunity period
1. Regulatory Sword of Damocles
If the US Senate's 'Stablecoin Innovation Act' is passed, it will reshape the landscape of USDT and USDC; Hong Kong's 'Stablecoin Regulations' will take effect in August, requiring transparency of reserves and anti-money laundering compliance. Regulatory divergence may trigger turbulence in the stablecoin market.
Risk warning: Underlying reefs behind the celebration
1. Recurrent data specter
Fluctuations in energy prices and tariff transmission effects may cause the CPI to rebound in June-August. Historical data shows that when CPI exceeds expectations, Bitcoin's daily volatility can reach 5-8%, necessitating vigilance against long positions being forced out.
2. Geopolitical black swan
Trump's tariff policy escalation and US-China trade frictions may trigger turmoil in traditional markets, transmitting through tightening dollar liquidity to the cryptocurrency sector. The February 2025 Bitcoin flash crash case serves as a warning: policy risks can instantly reverse market sentiment.
Conclusion: The cooling CPI provides the Federal Reserve with leeway, and the cryptocurrency sector is momentarily immersed in the feast of interest rate cut expectations, but in the long run, the outcome lies in policy implementation and regulatory battles. Stablecoin regulation will reshape the industry landscape. Follow the real-time interpretations in the comments section, share with cryptocurrency partners, and like for more in-depth analysis of the crypto market!
