Recently, the relationship between Musk and Trump has shifted from public mutual attacks to a subtle thaw, behind which lies a deep game of political and commercial interests, with complex transmission chains affecting the crypto space.
1. The essence of the thawing relationship: a 'expedient' under the bundling of interests.
The core of their conflict lies in Trump's push for the 'Big and Beautiful' legislation. This legislation cuts spending on healthcare, education, and other areas to make way for tax cuts and defense, directly impacting Tesla's electric vehicle tax credits and causing Tesla's market value to evaporate by more than $150 billion in a single day. However, on June 6, Trump suddenly stated that he 'hopes all is well with Musk,' to which Musk responded 'same here.' This dramatic turn stems from the compromise of their real interests.
• Trump's political calculations: With the midterm elections approaching, the Republican Party needs Musk's X platform (formerly Twitter) as a media battleground, while avoiding the loss of 'tech right' voters due to internal divisions— 76% of Republicans have a favorable view of Musk.
• Musk's business bottom line: SpaceX relies on billions of dollars in contracts from the U.S. government each year (such as the manned space program), while Tesla faces rising supply chain costs under Trump's tariff policies. If their relationship completely breaks down, Musk will lose important policy support.
This easing feels more like a 'divorce cooling-off period' rather than a true reconciliation. Trump subsequently declared that 'the relationship is over' and considered selling the red Tesla, while Musk, although retracting the threat of retiring the 'Dragon' spacecraft, still keeps the option of forming a third party.
2. The direct impact on the crypto space: A dual game of policy expectations and market sentiment.
1. Potential variables in the strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies.
Trump announced in March 2025 that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others would be included in the national reserves, causing the market to surge by $300 billion in a single day. However, the plan quickly cooled due to vague details and the impacts of tariff policies, with tokens like Ripple almost giving back all gains. Following this thaw in relations, the market may reassess the continuity of Trump's cryptocurrency policies:
◦ Positive point: If Trump releases the signal of 'America becoming the capital of cryptocurrencies' again to gain support from the tech community, it may stimulate a short-term rise in mainstream currencies like Bitcoin.
Risk point: Trump's policy reversals are extremely strong, and the inflationary pressures caused by his tariff policies (although the May CPI was lower than expected, concerns still remain) may suppress the performance of risk assets.
2. Musk's 'promotional effect' on cryptocurrencies.
Musk's influence on Dogecoin can be seen as a 'barometer' for the crypto space. When Trump appointed him to lead the 'Department of Government Efficiency' in November 2024, Dogecoin surged 19% in a single day. Following this thaw in relations, if Musk mentions cryptocurrencies on the X platform (such as joking about Dogecoin again), it may trigger fluctuations in related tokens. However, one must be wary of the risks of his 'off-the-cuff' remarks— in February 2025, he claimed, 'I love Trump,' but fell out in May due to policy disagreements.
3. The speculative nature of Trump Coin and its policy risks.
Since the launch of 'Trump Coin' ($TRUMP) by the Trump family in January 2025, it has brought over $350 million in profits to associated entities, but 80% of the tokens are held internally, posing serious control risks. Recently, Trump announced a White House dinner for large token holders, driving price volatility. This 'policy-token' linkage may exacerbate market speculation but may also trigger sell-offs due to regulatory investigations (such as Democrats questioning its 'self-serving' motives).
3. Long-term concerns: The deep impact of political maneuvering on the crypto space.
1. The transmission of fissures within the Republican Party.
The MAGA faction represented by Trump and the 'tech right' represented by Musk have fundamental ideological conflicts— the former is anti-globalization and anti-free trade, while the latter relies on globalization dividends. If their contradictions escalate, it may lead to fluctuations in cryptocurrency policies; for example, Trump may suddenly tighten regulations on stablecoins or DeFi to cater to populist voters.
2. The spillover of geopolitical risks.
Trump's tariff policies have already led to rising supply chain costs for Tesla; if he further escalates trade tensions, it may trigger a rise in global market risk aversion. Bitcoin's safe-haven attribute as 'digital gold' may be weakened (in April 2025, due to tariff concerns, Bitcoin fell from $95,000 to $92,000).
3. The sword of regulatory uncertainty hangs overhead.
Although Trump promised to relax regulations, the attitude of the U.S. SEC towards cryptocurrencies remains uncertain. For example, David Sachs, the appointed 'crypto czar,' has pushed for policy loosening, but the Democrats have questioned the Trump family's ties with the crypto industry, potentially initiating an investigation in Congress.
4. Investor response strategies: Be cautious of short-term fluctuations and focus on concrete policies.
1. Short-term operations.
◦ Closely monitor the social media dynamics of Musk and Trump, especially whether Musk mentions Dogecoin or other cryptocurrencies again.
◦ Be wary of the speculative risks of highly controlled tokens like 'Trump Coin' and avoid blindly following the trend.
2. Long-term layout.
◦ Pay attention to the specific implementation progress of the U.S. cryptocurrency strategic reserve; if the Trump administration truly buys Bitcoin with real money, it may reshape market confidence.
◦ Avoid projects that are too closely tied to the Trump family (such as World Liberty Financial) and prioritize choosing coins with solid technology and clear narratives (such as ZBCN in the RWA track and VIRTUAL in AI + blockchain).
3. Risk hedging.
◦ Allocate a portion of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' to hedge against policy risks, but control the position (suggested not to exceed 10% of total assets).
◦ Diversify investments into markets with higher regulatory certainty (such as compliant projects after the stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong take effect).
Conclusion.
The recent thaw in the relationship between Musk and Trump is essentially a political expediency tied to their interests, and its impact on the crypto space is more emotional than substantive policy. In the short term, the market may fluctuate due to 'reconciliation expectations,' but in the long term, attention must still be paid to the uncertainties of political maneuvering. Investors should remain rational, avoid being swept up by emotional narratives, and closely monitor concrete policies and on-chain data (such as the inflow of altcoins to exchanges and changes in whale holdings), seizing structural opportunities in 'Precise Altcoin Season 2.0.'
Interaction: How long do you think the 'plastic friendship' between Musk and Trump can last? Is it a positive or negative for the crypto space? Feel free to leave comments for discussion and remind partners to invest rationally, and stay tuned for more in-depth analyses of cryptocurrencies~ 🚀