Weekly Market Review
Last week demonstrated that the labor market continues to slow, although it remains resilient. May data showed a mere increase of 139,000 nonfarm payrolls —one of the smallest gains since the pandemic—and figures for the previous two months were revised downward by a total of 95,000 . Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2% .
Under current conditions, this environment is ideal for risk assets. Recession risks are gradually receding, and the beginning of the interest rate cut cycle appears to be drawing closer, even amid uncertainty surrounding trade wars.
In this context, this week’s inflation data takes on increasing importance, as it could provide additional insight ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting on June 18 . A rate cut is unlikely at this meeting, but any subtle hint from Jerome Powell toward future easing could support risk assets.
Key Events This Week
June 9 (Monday)
U.S.-China Trade Talks
There is potential for a relaxation of export controls on U.S. AI chip shipments to China.
June 11 (Wednesday)
CPI – Consumer Price Index
Year-over-year figures may show a slight rise, mainly due to base effects from a low-comparison period dropping out. For a more dovish tone from Powell, a monthly decline in inflation will be necessary. Otherwise, we may hear again about the need for "additional data."
June 12 (Thursday)
PPI – Producer Price Index
Following the release of PPI and CPI data, banks will begin issuing forecasts for the May PCE index , which is the key inflation measure monitored by the Fed.
Unemployment Claims
Initial jobless claims are expected to reach 241,000 —a relatively high number, reinforcing concerns about labor market weakness.
June 13 (Friday)
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Markets will closely watch consumer inflation expectations . According to the latest report, one-year inflation expectations remain elevated at 6.6% , a level that has persisted for three months. Any drop in this figure could provide further support to risk assets
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