CRYPTODATEX

Weekly Market Review
Last week demonstrated that the labor market continues to slow, although it remains resilient. May data showed a mere increase of 139,000 nonfarm payrolls —one of the smallest gains since the pandemic—and figures for the previous two months were revised downward by a total of 95,000 . Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2% .
Under current conditions, this environment is ideal for risk assets. Recession risks are gradually receding, and the beginning of the interest rate cut cycle appears to be drawing closer, even amid uncertainty surrounding trade wars.
In this context, this week’s inflation data takes on increasing importance, as it could provide additional insight ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting on June 18 . A rate cut is unlikely at this meeting, but any subtle hint from Jerome Powell toward future easing could support risk assets.
Key Events This Week
June 9 (Monday)
U.S.-China Trade Talks
There is potential for a relaxation of export controls on U.S. AI chip shipments to China.
June 11 (Wednesday)
CPI – Consumer Price Index
Year-over-year figures may show a slight rise, mainly due to base effects from a low-comparison period dropping out. For a more dovish tone from Powell, a monthly decline in inflation will be necessary. Otherwise, we may hear again about the need for "additional data."
June 12 (Thursday)
PPI – Producer Price Index
Following the release of PPI and CPI data, banks will begin issuing forecasts for the May PCE index , which is the key inflation measure monitored by the Fed.
Unemployment Claims
Initial jobless claims are expected to reach 241,000 —a relatively high number, reinforcing concerns about labor market weakness.
June 13 (Friday)
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Markets will closely watch consumer inflation expectations . According to the latest report, one-year inflation expectations remain elevated at 6.6% , a level that has persisted for three months. Any drop in this figure could provide further support to risk assets
#BTC #FedPolicy #InflationWatch

Weekly Market Review
Last week turned out to be far from uneventful by Friday, when Trump announced he recommends imposing a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1. This was his response to what he called a weak tariff proposal from the EU. In true Trump style—threaten first, negotiate later—his statement prompted a Sunday phone call from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. As a result, the imposition of 50% tariffs on the EU was postponed to July 9 (the date when reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to take effect).
🗓
Macro Stats in Focus Starting Wednesday:
May 28 (Wednesday)
NVIDIA Q1 Earnings Report: Given NVIDIA’s market cap, the report could have a strong impact on the overall stock indices and potentially set the tone for the tech sector.
May 29 (Thursday)
Preliminary GDP q/q (Second Estimate): The first reading showed a 0.3% decline in U.S. GDP, raising recession concerns. Any upward revision will likely be viewed positively by markets.
Prelim GDP Price Index q/q: A key stagflation risk indicator. Markets will welcome a decline in this figure.
Unemployment Claims: Labor market data is best interpreted in the context of inflation. Ideally, markets want economic slowdown and inflation to decelerate in tandem.
May 30 (Friday)
PCE Price Index: This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. It’s based on CPI and PPI data already released, so the market impact will depend on how the actual figure compares to the forecast. Risk assets are likely to rally on a lower-than-expected reading.
Crypto Market
Bitcoin has set a new all-time high at $111,980. With strong institutional demand (BTC ETF inflows hit $2.75 billion last week), the uptrend is likely to continue. The $114,000–$115,000 range is a potential short-term target—beyond that, it’s all about how far the imagination goes.
Ethereum (ETH) is also attracting attention, with $250 million in ETH ETF inflows last week. After two weeks of consolidation, a breakout to the upside is likely, with a test of the $2,800–$3,000 zone expected
#Bitcoin
#BTC #ETH
#TradingSignal
#Trading

Weekly Crypto Market Recap:
BTC Eyes New ATH, ETH Targets Key Resistance
This week saw consolidation across major cryptocurrencies as they adapt to new price levels.

ETF Inflows : BTC ETFs attracted $260M and ETH ETFs $41.5M — a sign of growing institutional confidence.Bitcoin : Just 4% from its all-time high. Technical indicators like the golden cross and liquidation maps suggest a potential short squeeze ahead.Ethereum : Testing critical $2,800–$2,900 resistance zone.

Macro Environment : Mixed — tariff cuts and Fed easing expectations support markets, while inflation fears persist due to supply chain issues and PPI data concerns.

Risk Notes :
BTC volatility may rise near ATH. Use caution with shorts — bull momentum remains strong.

#Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoAnalysis #BNB #BSC #Altcoins #DeFi #NFTs

🚀 Bitcoin Eyes $92K as Bulls Maintain Pressure
BTC continues its bullish momentum after key limit orders around $88K were filled on the spot market. Attention now shifts to the $92K resistance zone, while buy-side interest remains strong near $80K on both spot and futures.

📊 From the Liquidation Map:
Heavy long liquidations below $88K have been absorbed.
Predictive clusters point to potential liquidations up to $92K, increasing pressure on short positions.
Green curve shows building short liquidations above current price — shorts are increasingly exposed.

📉 Volume and Order Book Insights:
Trading activity is strong in the current range, signaling active seller resistance. However, price remains firm despite sell pressure, indicating demand is effectively absorbing liquidity. Limit order flow remains balanced — a sign of market resilience.

📈 Price & Trend Outlook:
BTC is trading near its 50-day moving average and approaching the 200-day from below. A breakout above both would confirm a bullish reversal. Market price (~$88,914) acts as a short-term magnet level.

📅 This Week’s Macro Events:
IMF outlook (Apr 22)
G20 finance meeting (Apr 23)
Fed Beige Book & US jobless claims (Apr 24)
SEC crypto custody roundtable (Apr 25)

🔍 Market Forecast:
Volatility remains compressed, setting the stage for a breakout. Despite recent highs, bearish positioning still makes up 20%+ of block trades — highlighting a sentiment mismatch.

Watch for price action around $92K and potential volatility from U.S. macro signals or SEC updates.

#BTC #Binance #BTCUSDT #SpotTrading #FuturesTrading #CryptoTrends #BitcoinLevels #BTCStrategy #BinanceUpdate

Markets are calming down despite escalation

Risk assets have started to stabilize after a week of trade "swings" between the US and China. Even colossal tariffs—145% on Chinese imports (US) and 125% retaliatory tariffs (China)—are now perceived as symbolic rather than market-significant. This contrasts with the panic during the initial days of the "Liberation Day shocks" (a conditional name for the peak of the crisis).

The art of cancellation: a gesture of peace or retreat?

Amid increasingly aggressive rhetoric, both sides have begun taking cautious steps toward de-escalation:

The US has secretly excluded smartphones, computers, and chips from new tariffs ahead of Friday's market opening.

China has urged the US to "fully cancel" mutual tariffs.

Who will surrender first?
Washington is looking for leverage.
Beijing is trying to buy time.

Both sides are weak, but are attempting to show strength. However, markets are discounting optimism despite the deadlock.

What about Bitcoin?

Short-term caution: BTC risk reversals until June are skewed toward puts (fear of decline).

Long-term optimism: On Saturday, an aggressive purchase of 800x BTC-27MAR26-100k-C was recorded.

Current range: BTC is consolidating in the corridor of $80,000–$90,000. A sideways trend is likely until clarity on the trade war emerges.

Key conclusions:

Tariffs as theater: Markets have adapted to rhetoric, focusing on real actions by both sides.

BTC: Balance between caution and optimism: Short-term hedging via puts vs. long-term bets on growth.
Triggers: Any signs of conflict easing could lead to a test of $90,000.

#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Cryptocurrency
#TradeWar

Trump's 90-Day Tariff Truce Ignites Market Rally – But What Comes Next?

Yesterday, Trump gave markets a breather by suspending the implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days for countries that do not impose counter-tariffs (which, according to Trump, are many), with the exception of China, which still faces a 125% tariff threat.

📈 On this news, markets rebounded sharply from their local lows, posting double-digit gains. Option volatility dropped significantly, though it remains elevated. Banks that were forecasting a recession just yesterday are now rapidly adjusting their outlooks to more optimistic ones.

So, where do things stand now?

🔹 According to Treasury Secretary Bessent, the proposed tariffs were the maximum, meaning there’s a 90-day window to negotiate better terms — which is a positive development in itself.

🔹 The U.S.-China tariff ping-pong has reached its peak. Tariffs over 100% no longer scare the markets — all eyes are on upcoming negotiations and potential de-escalation.

But where might the next shock come from?

Iran tensions are back in focus.

As everyone was distracted by the "trade war" saga, Trump reminded us of Iran. Geopolitical risks remain high — and as always with Trump, unpredictable.

Markets now shift focus to macro data.

With tariffs on hold, attention turns to their existing effects. Recently, recession fears led traders to price in four Fed rate cuts by year-end. But Powell indicated the Fed isn’t planning cuts unless backed by data.

If GDP growth slows and the labor market weakens while inflation rises, it will be hard for the rally to continue, as markets may revise rate expectations upward.

Key dates to watch:

April 30: Q1 GDP Report
Friday: Inflation Data
Consumer prices may tick up monthly but drop annually (due to high base in March 2024).
Producer prices may rise sharply, but markets may shrug it off, as many firms stocked up before tariffs hit.

Bottom line:

There’s potential for this local rally to continue — but with Trump, optimism can quickly flip to turbulence. Stay alert.

What the U.S. did:
April 2: Donald Trump imposed 10% "reciprocal tariffs" on all imported goods; for China, the total tariff increased to 54%.
April 7: The U.S. threatened an additional 50% tariff if China does not cancel its 34% tariffs.
They are also threatening to completely stop negotiations with China and start talks with other countries.

China's Response:
April 4: China announced a 34% tariff on all goods from the U.S., effective April 10.
April 8: The PBOC (People’s Bank of China) set the yuan exchange rate above 7.20 — this is the "devaluation line", for the first time since 2023.
🔷 A hint at the beginning of controlled yuan devaluation.

💱 Why China is devaluing:
To soften the effect of U.S. tariffs by making exports cheaper.
However, this creates the risk of capital flight (China holds $60 trillion in deposits — 3 times more than in the U.S.).

Impact on BTC:
In 2015–2016, when China devalued the yuan, Bitcoin rose from $200 to $20,000.
A potential new devaluation could again trigger increased demand for BTC as a hedge against yuan depreciation.

❗ Conclusion: China crossed an important currency “line,” the U.S. is increasing pressure. Historically, such moves have often been followed by capital flight into Bitcoin and other alternative assets.

#China
#BTC
#Bitcoin
#CryptoNews
#TradeWar

📉 Financial Markets: A Historic Shock
Last week entered history as one of the most turbulent in recent years. Financial markets are in turmoil due to escalating geopolitics, trade wars, and uncertainty in global central bank policies.
🔺 Markets in Panic:
China plunged by -10%—the largest drop since 2008.
Nasdaq -5.4%, S&P 500 -3.84%—the worst three-day fall since "Black Monday."
Japan's Nikkei 225 fell by 8% within the first 30 minutes of trading.
Taiwan banned short selling—a desperate attempt to stabilize the market.
🔮 Cryptocurrencies: Stability or?
While stocks and metals fell, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies showed resilience:
BTC rebounded on Friday despite ETF outflows.
Inflows into BTC ETFs before tariffs reached +$220M, with outflows at -$100M and -$65M respectively.
This signals the emergence of long-term holders viewing crypto as a hedge against fiat instability.
🧭 What’s Next:
If China and the U.S. fail to reach a tariff agreement, markets may continue falling as investors reassess global recession risks:
Another wave of sell-offs is possible; S&P 500 and Nasdaq could lose an additional 3–5%.
Investors will keep hedging, but traditional strategies are losing effectiveness as volatility rises (VIX at 45).
💥 Crypto Forecast:
BTC/USD: Current range $65,000–$71,000. Likely breakout upward if:
Positive tariff news emerges (delays or negotiations).
Signs of Fed policy easing appear.
Continued ETF inflows persist.
🧩 Conclusion: A Market at a Crossroads
The situation resembles March 2020 but with different drivers—not a pandemic but geoeconomics and trade wars reshaping models from hedging to correlations.
Cryptocurrencies are increasingly seen as uncorrelated assets, especially BTC, which is viewed as an alternative to gold with higher returns and accessibility. In a stagflationary environment where the Fed cannot print money as before, demand for decentralized assets is expected to grow.
🧠 Strategy: Hold BTC, capitalize on altcoin rebounds, avoid highly Nasdaq-correlated tokens, and keep stablecoins ready for dips.

Key Events of the Week:
Wednesday, April 3:
Trump's introduction of reciprocal tariffs — risk of increased volatility.

Friday, April 5:
Unemployment data and NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) — the main macro driver of the week.

Crypto Market Outlook:
Sentiment: Sluggish. ETH has hit new lows since 2024, while BTC remains range-bound.
Volatility:
BTC implied volatility (IV) remains above 50% for key expirations.
Short-term IV may decrease after the quarterly expiration.
Options:
Activity is mainly focused on quarterly settlement (portfolio rebalancing).
Limited arbitrage opportunities — the market is waiting for triggers.
Risk Analysis:
Correlation with U.S. Stocks: Crypto prices are sensitive to earnings reports from giants like Apple and Tesla.
Macro Events: NFP data and speeches by Powell/Lagarde could trigger sharp moves.
Technical Levels:
ETH: Risk of testing $2,000.
BTC: Key support at $85,000.

The data shows several important trends:
Current Volatility Situation: Bitcoin's 21-day rolling volatility (Image 1) has been below average recently, reaching levels around 0.007-0.008, compared to the average of 0.011229. This suggests a period of lower volatility than usual.
Recent Price Performance: BTC/USD (Image 2) has been in a downtrend, currently trading around $82,034, well below its average price of $93,218.84. Both 50-day and 200-day moving averages are converging, with the price below both indicators.
Market Liquidations: The liquidation map (Image 4) shows significant short position liquidations have occurred at various price levels, with current price around 82034.
Economic Context: Upcoming economic events (Image 3) could impact Bitcoin price, especially the Fed Chair Powell speech on Friday and the stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (151K vs 80K consensus).

Daily Forecast for This Week:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025: $81,200
The ISM Manufacturing PMI matches previous readings, suggesting economic stability, but Bitcoin appears to be in a short-term bearish trend. Expect slight continued downward pressure.
Wednesday, April 2, 2025: $80,500
Without major economic releases, technical factors likely dominate. The convergence of moving averages suggests continued downward pressure before potential stabilization.
Thursday, April 3, 2025: $81,300
ISM Services PMI showing improvement may provide slight positive sentiment. A small relief bounce is possible as the market digests this data and prepares for Friday's important releases.
Friday, April 4, 2025: $83,700
The stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls and Powell's speech could bring volatility. While high employment figures might typically pressure Bitcoin prices (suggesting less need for rate cuts), low volatility readings indicate the market may be ready for a directional move. Powell's speech will be critical, but the low volatility environment suggests a potential upside move is forming
Created via AI agent, this information can occasionally produce responses that are incorrect or misleading

Hello everyone, have a good trading week. Rumors have persistently pulled prices up. Volatility is off the charts, I think this week will be a smooth movement. A good time to trade the most correlated coins
ETHUSDT 0.810796
DOGEUSDT 0.809620
AVAXUSDT 0.801426
STXUSDT 0.798117
BCHUSDT 0.793459
VETUSDT 0.791189
1000SHIBUSDT 0.789703
GRTUSDT 0.783097
ALGOUSDT 0.782637
ZILUSDT 0.779458
AXSUSDT 0.777977
INJUSDT 0.777508
GALAUSDT 0.776762
SANDUSDT 0.776701
FLOWUSDT 0.775525
IOTAUSDT 0.774340
MANAUSDT 0.773071
THETAUSDT 0.773050
MINAUSDT 0.772897
ETCUSDT 0.772712
RVNUSDT 0.771077
DOTUSDT 0.771022
ICPUSDT 0.770737
BNTUSDT 0.769092
FILUSDT 0.767488
ENSUSDT 0.766841
SUPERUSDT 0.765522
SEIUSDT 0.765112
RIFUSDT 0.764825
NEARUSDT 0.764348
1INCHUSDT 0.763952
NEOUSDT 0.763835
EGLDUSDT 0.763283
Regarding events as well -
Friday is likely to see movements, otherwise it will probably be flat.

Bitcoin low volatility. Suggests an increase in volumes by the end of the week and a sharp price change

A very boring market. I think we are locked in the range
92-95k until Wednesday.

PART 2

Looking Ahead: Promising Trends
L2 is working! In fact, even fast networks like Solana are developing their own L2 solutions (e.g., Sonic, Bullet). 😲Solutions to L2 fragmentation are already in progress and will gradually roll out within Ethereum’s ecosystem, starting with the Pectra update in April 2025 (introducing concepts like intents and account abstraction). 👍
Key Takeaways:
There’s no scalable path forward without L2.Ethereum recognized this early and already has hundreds of independent L2 solutions in its ecosystem. The next bottleneck—fragmentation—is already being addressed and will see partial resolution by April 2025.Ethereum leads technologically, while other networks are playing catch-up. Nothing new there! 😂

The Big Picture: Why Security Trumps Fees
The inevitable L2 scaling model leads to a clear division of responsibilities:
L2: Execution—speed, low cost, and seamless integration.L1: Settlement—validation and reconciliation, akin to "interbank transactions."
And what’s the most critical requirement for settlement? Security. 🔰
As the industry moves toward appchains and specialized L2 networks tailored for diverse business models, the demand for secure Layer 1s increases exponentially.
At this point, the volume of transaction fees collected by L1 becomes less relevant. Why? Because a single failure or downtime on L1 could cost the entire ecosystem of dependent L2s tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars during the outage. 🥶
Once you understand that long-term value is driven by demand for security, not transaction fees, Ethereum’s position makes much more sense. 🤔
Makes sense, doesn’t it?

PART1

What’s Next for Ethereum: Beyond the Price Hype
This year, for the first time, I decided to not skim through the Messari report but instead dive into it deeply, exploring every section and following dozens of cross-references to related articles.
Honestly, I still haven’t finished reading the entire report! But I must admit, this approach brings an entirely different kind of satisfaction.
So, while I can’t offer a full summary just yet, here are some subjective takeaways on Ethereum.
The Eternal Question: When Will ETH Go to the Moon?
Many of us, myself included, are eagerly waiting for ETH's price to skyrocket. 🫨
Yet in 2024, Ethereum has faced relentless criticism. The core argument is that ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, seems stuck between two narratives:
Bitcoin's narrative of being "new money."The rise of new blockchains positioned as innovation hubs for the entire Web3 space.
In short, it feels like Ethereum in 2024 is neither here nor there. 🤨
But here’s the problem: people are looking at the wrong things.☝️
The Current Narrative: The Wrong Lens
Most discussions revolve around a single logical chain of thought:
Fast and cheap networks (e.g., Solana, Sui, Aptos) are more attractive to users, leading to higher transaction volumes.Higher transaction volumes boost the value of those networks' tokens (e.g., SOL, APT, SUI).While Ethereum is also accelerating through Layer 2 (L2) solutions (e.g., Base, zkSync, Starknet), this doesn’t directly increase ETH’s value because:Transaction fees (gas) primarily accumulate on the L2 level and only partially reach Ethereum's Layer 1 (L1).The growing number of specialized L2 networks leads to user challenges and liquidity fragmentation.
This logic is sound—if we assume the development process ends here. But we’re far from the finish line. 👀

The thought wasn’t voiced, but to me, it’s quite obvious. I’ll mention it just in case!
If the DOJ sells Bitcoin worth $6.5 billion, that’s an enormous amount for the market. For comparison, Michael Saylor’s announced fundraising is only $2 billion. They won’t sell it all in one day—it will take weeks or even months. Until they finish selling, speculators won’t rush to buy.
We’ve already been told that the Federal Reserve isn’t ready to create a Bitcoin fund, as it’s legally restricted. Moreover, after the current Bitcoin sales, this became clear to everyone who still had hope for it.
I saw your statement about $8 billion being freed up after the FTX bankruptcy—that’s not true. 70% of this money has already been paid out during pre-court settlements because it wasn’t clear whether FTX had funds or not. You could sell your claim for 30-70% of its nominal value. This means this money is either already in the market or will never return here.
Let’s not forget about the Bitcoin distribution from MGox. Considering the sharply changed fundamental environment, I’m confident that some recipients of the distributed Bitcoin will gladly cash out, just like many retail investors who were lucky to buy at much lower prices and now understand that the U.S. government isn’t sending Bitcoin to the moon.
Michael Saylor must be fuming over this situation, as people like to say in trendy Reels. He thought he would buy up all the available volume and push the price higher. Now, that seems unlikely, given this sudden influx of supply.
You might argue that Bitcoin will be sold OTC and not on the market. That’s partly true, but OTC desks also buy part of their supply from the market to meet demand. Now, they have plenty of supply and no need to do so.
Could someone step in and buy everything at once? Maybe a fund like Saudi Arabia’s, but big players like BlackRock and others playing the long game have no reason to. Price declines only benefit them. If we test bids at $90-80k for a month or two, it’ll work in their favor. Nobody’s in a hurry