According to the latest market data from June 9, 2025, the current price of Bitcoin is fluctuating around $105,600, and the long-short battle has entered a critical stage. Combining on-chain data and technical indicator analysis, the current market presents the following core contradictions:
1. The key battleground of long-short contention
Distribution of leverage positions
Currently, there is a short leverage position worth $15.11 billion accumulated in the dollar range. If the price breaks through this level, it will trigger a large-scale short squeeze. In contrast, a 10% decline would only require the liquidation of $9.58 billion in long positions, indicating a higher congestion of short positions.
Divergence between institutions and retail investors
On-chain data shows that the inflow of funds into whale addresses has surged by 254.46% in the past 3 days, and the total holdings of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF have surpassed 1.1 million BTC (valued at approximately $125.8 billion). BlackRock's IBIT holding market value has reached $69.5 billion. This contradicts the user-reported "whale net outflow of 28,000 BTC," with actual data pointing to institutions continuing to accumulate.
2. Technical and liquidity dilemma
Key price signals
The MACD momentum bars continue to shorten, indicating a weakening of bullish power but not forming a death cross, remaining in a neutral range, with no significant overbought/oversold conditions. $104,800 serves as the short-term dividing line for long and short positions, while the $97,500-$100,000 range is a core psychological support area.
Liquidity crisis intensifies
Bitcoin's on-chain transaction volume has dropped to 317,000 transactions/day (the lowest since October 2023), and miner fee income has plummeted by 87% to $593,000/day. Some mining pools are engaging in "dark pool trading" with ultra-low dollar bowling transactions, reflecting a network utilization rate of less than 40.
3. Market reversal trigger mechanisms
Conditions for upward breakout
If the resistance at $107,000 is broken with volume, it may trigger a $15.1 billion short squeeze, targeting the $115,000-$120,000 range. At this time, it is necessary to pay attention to the flow of funds in the U.S. spot ETF and the Federal Reserve's policy expectations.
Downward risk path
Breaking below the support at $104,800 may trigger a "liquidity spiral," testing the psychological level of $100,000. However, it should be noted that the $97,500-$100,000 range is the cost zone for holders over the past 3-6 months, providing strong support.
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