Recent Bitcoin price movements have drawn market attention, key dynamics are as follows:
• Support Level Confirmation and Market Sentiment: Before the weekly close on June 8, BTC/USD stabilized at $105,500, completing a 'successful retest' of the $100,000 support level. The market expects the adjustment phase to end, with traders betting on the continuation of the upward trend.
• Technical Signals: The daily line broke through the two-week downward trend line and turned into support, closing price stabilizing above the 10-day SMA. Trader Rekt Capital pointed out that if the support in the $106,600 area is further confirmed, it will strengthen the upward momentum.
• Liquidity and Volatility Expectations: Liquidity has accumulated above and below the spot price, potentially triggering a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Analyst Cas Abbe pointed out that current liquidation data shows that a 10% increase would trigger $15.11 billion in short liquidations, while a 10% decrease would liquidate $9.58 billion in long positions. Negative funding rates indicate increased short positions over the weekend, suggesting a possibility of significant volatility next week, targeting $109,000-$110,000.
• Divergent Views: Some analysts believe there may be another test of the $100,000 support level. Trader CrypNuevo termed this price level as 'the strongest psychological support', making it a reasonable position to go long; Rekt Capital is focused on whether the weekly close can remain above $104,400 to confirm the validity of the support.
Currently lacking effective supportive news, this Wednesday's CPI data may be the turning point for the oscillation. As for whether it can ignite further momentum, we shall wait and see!
Market news
Bitcoin insurance provider 'Simultaneously' disclosed $220.4 BTC funds valued at $22 million.
BTC Institutional Dynamics: Abraxas Capital Mgmt withdrew 997 BTC from Binance exchange, suspected to be a purchase.
Abraxas Capital Mgmt withdrew 997 BTC from Binance exchange, worth $105 million, with an average price of $105,436 per coin, suspected to be a purchase.
Currently, this address holds a total of 2,304 BTC, worth approximately $243 million.
(Note the actual changes)
Binance's latest proof of reserves (PoR) report shows that Binance's main asset reserve rates exceed 100%. Among them:
BTC reserve rate is 102.13%, holding 606,080.648 Bitcoins; USDT reserve rate is 101.52%, holding approximately 29.27 billion.
ETH reserve rate is 100.00%, holding approximately 5.337 million coins;
BNB reserve rate is 111.74%, holding approximately 44.536 million coins.
USDC reserve rate is the highest, reaching 153.01%, indicating sufficient funds reserves.
CITIC Securities research report points out that cryptocurrencies have privacy and anti-inflation characteristics, accelerating the formal assetization, and after the expansion of rigid demand, a pattern similar to gold's 'rigid demand support + speculative pricing' will form.
In the short term, due to insufficient monetization and high risk appetite among marginal pricing agents, speculation is relatively strong; in the medium to long term, under the trends of de-globalization and de-dollarization, cryptocurrencies may benefit alongside gold from the monetization process, with 'future gold' likely including cryptocurrencies.
In the short term, cryptocurrencies may benefit from potential regulatory easing during Trump's term, but we need to wait for clarity on trade and foreign policy.
OKX-BTC perpetual contract currently reports: $105,332, according to the BTC market capitalization data analysis, the BTC market cap ratio has risen in the past 24 hours, and the price is expected to rise.
Last night, a major whale increased their holdings by 250 Bitcoins, reigniting market confidence.
The altcoin hotspot has shifted from Solana to BSC and Base, analysts predict BTC may break $110,000 this week.
The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May released last Friday was slightly higher than expected, easing market concerns about an economic recession. This Wednesday's upcoming CPI report for May will become the market's focus, possibly indicating whether the trend of declining inflation is stalling.
The weekend market was relatively subdued, with Bitcoin primarily fluctuating. Last week's closing price was $105,734, successfully staying above the 10-day simple moving average.
In the altcoin market, it has become increasingly difficult to collect honey on-chain, especially on the Solana chain, where many traders are turning to Base or BSC chains.
BTC Medium to Long-Term Trend Channel:
Upper limit 106,500, lower limit 104,000
ETH Medium to Long-Term Trend Channel:
Upper limit 2550, lower limit 2380
Pay attention to changes in these positions; once the oscillation pattern is broken, market movements will occur.
Given the current trend, the outlook for Bitcoin is relatively optimistic. Although recent news has led to market turmoil, the upward space remains to be developed from Bitcoin's dominant position. As for when this will happen, it depends on macroeconomic conditions and signals released by news and major institutional actions.
