It's Monday again, and June is about to end this week as we approach the middle of the month. However, looking at the daily chart since June 1, the market has recently shown a positive V-shaped trend, offsetting the previous sharp drop.
After the release of various data reports last week, the market has not seen a pullback over the weekend, showing a trend of fluctuating upward, but the movement is relatively slow. The bulls and bears are pulling against each other, with pressure and resistance moving together.
Currently, market sentiment is cautiously observing. On one hand, ETFs for BTC and ETH continue to attract capital inflows, and institutions have a clear long-term optimistic trend; on the other hand, CME open interest is decreasing, and institutions like BlackRock are reducing holdings, reflecting profit-taking and a tendency to hedge.
Investor sentiment is highly divided, with fierce long and short battles. The scale of capital inflows and outflows related to BTC ETFs has hit new highs, exacerbating market uncertainty.
The market is focusing on ETF fund movements, institutional operations, and macro data. In the short term, BTC and ETH prices may show a fluctuating pattern.
In addition, the trading volume is fluctuating, with poor sustainability, reflecting participants' cautious attitudes; market enthusiasm is neutral, making it difficult to form a unilateral market.
Summary:
In the long term, the continuous inflow of institutional investment provides support to the market, but the uncertainties in the macro economy and regulatory policies remain potential risks. Currently, there are no significant bullish or bearish news impacting the market, and further observation of the overall structure is needed.
Yumi suggests that it is more prudent to conduct high selling and low buying short-term operations between the pressure level of 107000/2580 and the support level of 104000/2420.
Federal Reserve:
① Harker: Amid uncertainty, the Federal Reserve still has the potential to cut interest rates later this year.
② Mousalem: The possibility of a trade war leading to sustained inflation is 50%. Tariffs may push inflation higher within one or two quarters.
③ Bowman: The Federal Reserve should propose changing the regulatory ratings for large banks; it is considering establishing an independent regulatory framework for community banks.
Today's focus:
22:00, U.S. April wholesale sales month-on-month;
23:00, U.S. May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;
Old He will visit the UK and hold the first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism.
Due to the (June 9) birthday of the king, the Australian-Sydney Stock Exchange will be closed for one day.
Crypto market news:
1. Hong Kong is researching a pilot for virtual asset derivatives, which may include BTC and ETH perpetual contracts.
2. The U.S. Democratic Party is about to discuss (preventing Trump from participating in cryptocurrency legislation).
3. Michael Saylor hints at disclosing Strategy Bitcoin accumulation data.
4. Coinbase CEO claims Bitcoin is superior to gold as a form of currency.
5. CME data: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June is only 2.6%.
After experiencing false alarms of recession in 2023 and 2024, the U.S. economy is entering another unsettling summer.
Key inflation data is set to be announced on Wednesday, while the Federal Reserve remains cautious ahead of its rate decision on June 18 (next week), with an unclear outlook; the market still remains in a state of confusion.
Now let's look at the farce between Trump and Musk:
After the mutual tearing, the relationship between the two has not eased, and Trump warned his former aide Musk not to interfere in the U.S. midterm elections, threatening that if he supports the Democrats in the campaign, he will face 'very serious consequences.'
Currently, the relationship between the two big shots remains deadlocked; even under friends' persuasion, it has little effect. Fighting with the president, the outcome can be imagined, but Musk, as the world's richest man, is also not to be underestimated in financial resources, after all, he spent 300 million dollars to help Trump rise to power; money can make things happen. There is a possibility of supporting someone aligned with his views, but this probability is very small.
The post from last week has been deleted this week, indicating that power outweighs financial resources. The situation of friends mutually blocking each other has also doomed this relationship to an end.
