I. Market Dynamics: A Tale of Two Extremes
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown intense volatility. Bitcoin briefly touched the $107 high before quickly retreating, while Ethereum also turned down after testing the upper moving average pressure; key support levels are undergoing severe testing, and the battle between bulls and bears has reached a fever pitch.
II. Fundamental Analysis
Accelerating Compliance Process: Nasdaq has submitted an application to the U.S. SEC to include XRP, SOL, ADA, and XLM in the cryptocurrency index. This move sends a strong signal of legalization, not only paving a clearer compliance path for these mainstream cryptocurrencies but also potentially attracting conservative funds like pensions and index funds. From a broader perspective, the value of established mainstream coins is expected to be reassessed, which could lead to a rotational rise in second-tier altcoins.
Federal Reserve interest rate expectations remain stable: Market expectations show that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is as high as 99.9%. While stable interest rate expectations provide some buffer for the market, the uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment will continue to affect the flow of funds and risk preferences in the cryptocurrency market.
III. In-depth Technical Analysis
BTC Technical Analysis
Weekly Perspective: Last week, Bitcoin's weekly chart formed a long lower shadow bullish candle, briefly breaking through the 7-day moving average resistance. This week, it is crucial to pay attention to the key support level at around $94; if this level is lost, it will trigger a larger-scale adjustment.
Daily Chart Pattern: Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin's daily price action has shown a downward trend. $107 has become an important resistance level above, and the current price is at the top of the second step of the consolidation range. If today closes with a solid bearish candle and breaks below $105, a new round of downward movement will likely begin in the short term.
4-Hour Trend: Last week, a typical V-shaped double top pattern was formed, and two large bearish candles have been consecutively printed, indicating that bearish sentiment is dominant. In the short term, prices are likely to continue the downward trend. During intraday trading, key resistance levels to watch above are $106 - $107, while support levels below are $104 - $103.
ETH Technical Analysis
Weekly Trend: Ethereum's weekly chart has shown four consecutive weeks of long upper shadow candles, indicating heavy selling pressure above. This week, it is important to monitor the 7-day moving average support at $2400; if this level is lost, the mid-term trend will weaken.
Daily Chart Pattern: Ethereum has been in a high-level box consolidation over the past month, with the top at $2680 and the bottom at $2480. The significant drop on June 6 broke all moving average supports, and although there was a slight rebound for recovery, it faced downward pressure again today. If it breaks below $2480 and prints a large bearish candle, the next strong support level below will be at $2280.
4-Hour Trend: Two large bearish candles have already been printed, breaking below the rebound channel, clearly indicating a bearish trend. During the day, the upper pressure levels to watch are $2510 - $2540, while the support levels below need to closely monitor $2460 - $2420.
IV. Altcoin Trading Strategies
Currently, the altcoin market lacks clear trading opportunities, and it is advisable to maintain a cautious stance. The ideal bottom-fishing opportunities for altcoins typically occur during the bottom consolidation phase after a significant drop in volume. Specifically, this is characterized by a prolonged period of low volume on the 4-hour chart, small K lines showing false breakouts with increasing volume, but prices do not create new lows while volume reaches new lows. In such cases, altcoins often have short-term bottom-fishing value; once the market starts to rally, the downside potential is limited (usually less than 10%), while the upside could reach 30% - 50%. If the market continues to improve, some strong altcoins in hot sectors may even double in value.
V. Trading Tips
The Hehe trading strategy can refer to the analysis points for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Given the current market volatility, it is advisable to focus on short-term trading and set strict stop-loss and take-profit levels. It is essential to remember that cryptocurrency market conditions change rapidly, and investment decisions should be made cautiously. The above views are for communication and sharing purposes only and do not constitute any investment advice.