1. Three fundamental events reshaping the market landscape.

  1. ETF Approval Delayed Again: The SEC extends the review period for Bitwise Dogecoin ETF, Grayscale Hedera ETF, and VanEck Avalanche ETF, cooling market expectations for compliant capital entry. Historical data shows that ETF approval delays often trigger a 5%-8% short-term pullback for the corresponding tokens.

  2. Coinbase Listing Dynamics: Sonic (S) included in the listing roadmap, as a Layer1 public chain of the Solana ecosystem, the S coin may replicate the initial 30% price increase of ARB upon listing, attention should be paid to the liquidity speculation window 72 hours before going live.

  3. Significant Regulatory Policy Shift: The SEC officially repeals the (custody rule) proposal from the Gensler era, marking a shift in regulation from 'high-pressure enforcement' to 'compliance guidance'. This change will lower the entry threshold for institutions (such as pension allocations to crypto assets), with an expectation that 5-8 traditional financial institutions will announce cryptocurrency custody plans in Q3.

2. Technical Analysis After Breaking Levels: Bull-Bear Game.

BTC: $103,000 support becomes the dividing line between bulls and bears.

  • Daily Level: Breakthrough of the key support at $105,000 with increased volume, forming a 'guillotine' pattern, the 5-day moving average has crossed below the 10-day moving average confirming a death cross. The cumulative decline over the past three days exceeds 7%, with a net outflow of $1.2 billion in main capital, indicating signs of profit-taking by institutions.

  • Short-term Key Levels:

    • Support Levels: $102,500 (200-hour moving average), $95,000 (starting point from December 2024)

    • Resistance Levels: $105,500 (previous support turned resistance), $108,000 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level)

  • Macroeconomic Transmission Logic: The June interest rate meeting maintained rates, with July rate cut expectations pushed to Q4, the dollar index rebounded to 103.5, and cryptocurrencies were sold off as 'high-risk assets'. However, caution is needed as oil prices may break $85/barrel; Bitcoin's 'anti-inflation property' may restart.

ETH: $2,480 support level determines the mid-term trend.

  • Daily Level: After failing to break above $2,800, there was a pullback, with trading volume increasing by 150%, indicating profit-taking by bulls. The current price is testing the bottom of the $2,480 range (the lower bound of the recent month's fluctuation range), and if it breaks down, it will test $2,380 (50-week moving average).

  • Cycle Simulation:

    • Short-term (3 days): Maintaining above $2,480 allows for light long positions, target $2,580;

    • Mid-term (2 weeks): Stabilizing above $2,700 opens the main upward trend, possibly combined with ETF approvals to challenge $3,050;

    • Long-term (Q3): Breaking through $3,050 enters the second phase of the bull market, target $3,400-$3,500.

3. Altcoin Strategy: Avoid systemic risks and position in three major directions.

  1. Risk Warning: In the context of escalating geopolitical conflicts, MEME coins (NEIRO, WIF), AI sector (WLD), and L2 scaling (ARB) have shown 'guillotine' patterns, with a 24-hour drop exceeding 15%. Historical data shows that when the Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVOL) exceeds 45, altcoins average a decline of 1.8 times that of mainstream coins.

  2. Layout Window:

    • Compliance Blue Chips: COMP (DeFi compliance leader), MKR (MakerDAO governance token), after regulatory easing, institutional holdings are expected to increase to 15%;

    • Expected Listing Targets: Tracking Coinbase's listing list, S (Sonic), JTO (staking protocol) may replicate the UNI listing trend;

    • Downside Resilience Sector: RWA (real-world assets on-chain) sector, such as PENDLE (interest rate derivatives protocol), has a low correlation with traditional finance, with volatility only 60% of BTC's.

  3. Operational Discipline: When Bitcoin falls below $103,000 and ETH falls below $2,480, altcoin positions should be reduced to below 10%; wait for the U.S. debt expiration wave in late June, then observe if Ethereum can stabilize above $2,700 before re-positioning.


Harmonious Risk Control: Altcoin positions have been reduced to 5%, retaining BTC/ETH hedge positions, with stop-loss levels set at $102,000 and $2,450 respectively. As market volatility increases, it is advisable to adopt a 'cash + mainstream coin' combination, waiting for a macro liquidity turning point.#今日行情分析 #比特币政策