1. Fundamental Factors Align

  1. Singapore Regulatory Storm: The Monetary Authority of Singapore orders unlicensed exchanges to withdraw, FTX-style risk warnings trigger market panic. Short-term liquidity is under pressure, but long-term benefits for compliant platforms like Coinbase and Binance, stablecoins (USDT/USDC), and on-chain payment sectors (such as XRP) may become the preferred safe haven.

  2. Middle East Geopolitical Conflicts Escalate: Crude oil prices jump 3%, cryptocurrency's 'digital gold' attribute is activated, and the 30-day correlation between BTC and gold rises to 0.58, with short-term funds accelerating inflow.

  3. Trump's Tariff Suspension Extended: The 90-day pause is extended to July 9, trade easing signals boost global risk appetite. Expectations for a Fed rate cut heat up, with an anticipated release of $86 billion in liquidity, and the crypto market may replay the 'water bull' of Q4 2024.

2. Technical Positioning for Long and Short

BTC: Three attempts at $11000 failed, is the pullback a trap or risk?

  • Daily Level: Three consecutive bearish candles have not broken the key support at $1080, the MA7 moving average ($1075) continues to rally, and sideways adjustment is repairing overbought indicators (RSI falls from 72 to 58). Historical data shows that after a 'three-pullback' in a major upward wave, there is a 70% probability that BTC will continue to make new highs.

  • 4-Hour Level: Trading volume increases but price has not broken the previous high of $1105, forming a 'volume-price divergence', caution against bullish traps is needed. The Fibonacci 61.8% support is at $1065, losing this level will target $1040.

ETH: Wedge adjustment hides breakout momentum

  • Daily Level: After peaking at $2830, the price fell back, forming a standard ascending wedge pattern, with $2740 as the wedge's lower support (corresponding to the 50-day moving average). Looking at the weekly chart, the gap from May has been filled, with a strong bullish candle breaking the 20-week moving average, increasing the probability of breaking through the $3000 level to 65%.

  • 4-Hour Level: Rapid recovery after a volume surge drops below $2740 shows signs of main force washout. If it loses $2710, the next support level is $2650 (30-day moving average).

3. Altcoin Operation Strategy: Don't panic during sharp declines, seize three waves of opportunity

  1. Regulatory Pressure Resistant Sectors: Compliant DeFi blue chips (such as COMP, MKR) can be gradually built up after a 10% pullback, with institutional funds likely to accelerate inflow afterwards;

  2. MEME Coin Stop Loss Discipline: Previous popular coins like NEIRO and WIF that have declined over 15% should be decisively sold for profit to avoid 'rollercoaster' effects;

  3. Position for Next Round of Hotspots: Layout during volume pullbacks in L2 expansion (ARB, OP), AI+Web3 (WLD) sectors, referencing the correlated effect when BTC breaks $11200.


Harmonious Risk Control: The altcoin position has been reduced to 20%, with a single-coin stop loss set at 10%, focusing on betting on ETH's rebound when it breaks $2830.


(Note: Market volatility is increasing, the above analysis needs to be adjusted according to real-time market conditions, and investment must strictly control positions.)

#今日行情分析 #比特币行情走势分析