When the president and the richest man publicly confront each other, the capital market is bound to be shaken. But have you ever thought that what Tesla really needs to worry about is not a short-term dispute?
In the past week, Tesla's investors experienced a rollercoaster market. Due to the intense clash between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, Tesla's stock price plummeted 14% in just one day, erasing about $138 billion in market value. This collision of politics and capital left the market momentarily in uproar.
The cause was Musk's public criticism of the spending bill supported by Trump, particularly his opposition to cutting electric vehicle tax credits. He pointed out that this bill could increase the U.S. deficit by more than $2.4 trillion. In response to such accusations, Trump did not back down, threatening to cancel government contracts with Musk's companies, while Musk retaliated by threatening to shut down SpaceX's 'Dragon' spacecraft.
A confrontation akin to a standoff ignited market sentiment. Musk's personal wealth shrank by $34 billion in a single day, setting a historic record for a rare single-day decline.
Surface turmoil, underlying undercurrents
Despite the grandstanding of this incident, several industry analysts point out that this dispute has minimal long-term fundamental impact on Tesla.
Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein stated that the changing relationship between Musk and Trump may trigger short-term stock price fluctuations and even affect investor sentiment, but it will not undermine the foundation of Tesla's core business. He pointed out that what is truly worth paying attention to is the broader political trends in the future—especially regarding changes in subsidy policies for the electric vehicle industry.
Trump has made it clear that he will cut electric vehicle tax credits once in office. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management warned that if this policy is implemented, it could lead to a decline of about 15% in Tesla's deliveries by 2025.
It is evident that a potential shift in the policy environment is more dangerous than Trump's emotions.
Autonomous taxis, Tesla's new gamble.
However, even under such a policy cloud, Tesla's future still has highlights worth looking forward to.
In June this year, Tesla plans to launch its first autonomous taxis in Austin. This is not only a crucial battle in Tesla's transformation but is also seen by the industry as an important part of the 'AI revolution in the physical world.' Munster believes that the U.S. aims to lead the world in artificial intelligence, and regardless of political fluctuations, the government still has the motivation to support the development of such cutting-edge technologies.
Goldstein also pointed out that regulators find it difficult to impose complex restrictions specifically targeting Tesla, such as mandating the installation of high-cost lidar equipment. He further analyzed that if Trump really wanted to suppress Musk, cutting government contracts with SpaceX would be far more direct and effective than targeting Tesla.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas shares a similar view. In his latest report, he emphasized that the long-term drivers pushing Tesla's stock price have not changed, including continued investments in artificial intelligence, robotics manufacturing, supply chain reshaping, renewable energy, and infrastructure construction.
Clearly, short-term political storms are insufficient to shake the future Tesla is building.
Do short-term fluctuations in the capital market signify new opportunities?
Tesla's recent stock price decline inevitably stirred market sentiment. However, truly visionary investors know that amidst the short-term noise, there often lie mid- to long-term strategic opportunities.
To seize opportunities in such a complex information environment in a timely manner, relying solely on intuition and news is far from enough. AI investment research platforms like Mlion.ai are becoming essential tools for more and more professional investors. They can monitor on-chain and off-chain data in real-time, combining the latest policy changes, market sentiment, and industry trends to help investors distill key insights from a plethora of information.
For example, for tech giants like Tesla, Mlion.ai can timely discover major capital movements and gain insights into the true market direction through capital flow tracking and sentiment analysis modules; its AI automatic research report feature quickly analyzes Tesla's latest developments in AI, autonomous driving, and renewable energy, helping investors seize opportunities amidst volatility.
The future is uncertain, but the trend is clear.
On Saturday, Trump stated in an NBC News interview that he has no intention of reconciling with Musk and even warned Musk not to support Democratic candidates. However, just before that, he had also told reporters on Air Force One, 'I hope he does well at Tesla.'
This complex and variable relationship between politics and business will inevitably continue to influence market sentiment. However, what truly determines Tesla's future is always the major trends of technological innovation and global energy transformation. Short-term disputes and stock price fluctuations are more noise; savvy investors are more concerned about the evolution of trends.
In this rapidly changing market, only by staying sensitive to information and insightful about trends can one find their own opportunities in every fluctuation. If you want to keep up with this rhythm, you might try Mlion.ai, using the power of AI to add a degree of certainty to your investment decisions.
Disclaimer: The above content is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice! Investment carries risks, and entering the market requires caution.