1. Bitcoin Core's Relay Strategy Sparks Community Controversy

The recent relay strategy statement released by Bitcoin Core has sparked widespread discussion in the Bitcoin community, with some participants expressing concerns about the strategy's content. This strategy mainly involves:


  1. Relay restrictions on non-standard transactions, specific fee structure transactions, and off-chain protocol transactions;

  2. Potential impacts on the transaction packaging of L2 or privacy protocols such as Ordinals, Runes, CoinJoin, and Lightning Hack.


There are divisions in the community regarding the actual impact of the strategy: if the situation escalates further, it may trigger intensified internal discussions similar to those during the 2017 BTC/BCH fork or Taproot activation, which could disturb market sentiment in the short term; if consensus is reached through community coordination mechanisms, market volatility may gradually ease, but the issue of decentralized governance in the Bitcoin ecosystem still requires continued attention.

2. Crypto Assets Under Pressure from High U.S. Treasury Yields

As of June 6, 2025, U.S. Treasury market data shows: the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds is approximately 4.51% (above the long-term average of 4.25%), two-year bonds are about 3.92%, and thirty-year bonds are about 4.97% (close to 5%), reflecting market cautious expectations regarding long-term inflation and fiscal outlook.


A high-interest-rate environment typically exerts pressure on risk assets, and crypto assets face funding pressure in the short term. However, the rise in U.S. Treasury yields also highlights the need for diversified asset allocation, and crypto assets, as a non-traditional asset class, may attract attention in some diversified funding allocations. It is necessary to be cautious if market concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability intensify, as this may lead to a decline in overall risk appetite, further affecting liquidity in the crypto market.

3. ETF Capital Flows Linked to Market Confidence

The capital flows of crypto asset ETFs continue to reflect investor sentiment, with the approval dynamics of crypto ETFs by the U.S. SEC being of particular interest. Approval progress not only directly affects the pace of capital inflows but may also act as a catalyst for a shift in market sentiment. Future monitoring of macroeconomic data, geopolitical situations, and changes in regulatory policies will be crucial in guiding capital allocation.

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin Weekly Chart

  1. Divergence signals indicate pullback pressure
    Weekly levels show that Bitcoin's price has reached new highs but trading volume continues to shrink; MACD and RSI indicators show bearish divergence with price trends, similar to characteristics seen at the top of the 2021 bull market, warranting caution against a technical adjustment caused by exhaustion of upward momentum.

  2. Macroeconomic Factors Overlaying Market Volatility
    If community governance disputes escalate, it may impact market confidence; macro variables such as Federal Reserve policy expectations, non-farm payroll and CPI data, and U.S. Treasury yield trends may all influence Bitcoin's short-term performance through liquidity expectations. The European Central Bank's interest rate cuts have limited impact on the crypto market, with the current dominant logic still focusing on Federal Reserve policy guidance.

  3. Key Price Level Reference


  • Short-term support: $103,000 (the lower edge of the consolidation platform; a break could lead to increased market selling pressure);

  • Mid-term support: $91,000 (the upper edge of the mid-2024 consolidation platform; a loss could accelerate the downward movement);

  • Long-term key range: $63,000-$65,000 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level + historical trading dense area, an important observation point for bull market structure).


Risk Warning: The price trend of Bitcoin is influenced by multiple factors, including policies, market sentiment, and technical aspects. The above analysis is based on current market data and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should pay attention to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction and the progress of governance in the crypto community, and reasonably control position risks.