1. Market cycles and Bitcoin halving
- Bitcoin halving in 2024: In April 2024, Bitcoin will undergo its fourth halving (from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC). Historical experience suggests that a bull market may follow within 1-2 years after halving, and 2025 may be in the mid or late stages of a bull market.
Cycle patterns: If the market follows historical patterns, 2025 may see liquidity easing (such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve) and institutional capital entering, driving price increases, but there are risks of cycle delays or failures.
2. Regulatory and compliance process
Clear policies from mainstream countries: Economies like the US, EU, and Japan may introduce clearer regulatory frameworks for crypto assets (such as comprehensive approval of spot ETFs and legislation on stablecoins), and compliance will attract traditional capital.
- Emerging market opportunities: Regions like Southeast Asia and Africa may accelerate the adoption of cryptocurrency due to fiat currency depreciation, but caution is needed for policy volatility risks.
3. Technological iteration and innovation
- Layer 2 and scalability: The Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystem (such as Arbitrum and Optimism) matures, with low-cost, high-speed transactions becoming the norm. New public chains will need to rely on differentiated competition.
- Cross-chain and interoperability: Cross-chain protocols like Cosmos and Polkadot may break ecological isolation, allowing for more free asset flow.
- New narrative explosion: AI + blockchain, DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network), RWA (Real World Asset tokenization), and other sectors may become new hotspots.
