Under the current cryptocurrency market landscape, the price direction of Bitcoin is constrained by multiple factors. According to Cointelegraph, CMC Markets analyst Carlo Pruscino recently proposed an important point: if the Federal Reserve implements interest rate cuts earlier than the market expects, the price of Bitcoin is very likely to challenge the key psychological level of $112,000 again.
From the current market situation, data shows that up to 97.5% of market participants generally believe that the interest rate will remain unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% during the Federal Reserve meeting held on June 18. This expectation reflects the market's general judgment on the stability of the current monetary policy.
However, it is worth noting that analysts emphasize that the U.S. employment report will become the core basis for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, as well as a key indicator determining Bitcoin's short-term trend. The quality of the employment data directly relates to the Federal Reserve's assessment of the economic situation, which in turn affects the direction of monetary policy, ultimately impacting the cryptocurrency market.
In addition, the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy hangs over the Federal Reserve's decision-making like the sword of Damocles. Changes in tariff policy not only affect the international trade landscape but also impact the domestic economic environment in the United States.
This uncertainty increases the difficulty for the Federal Reserve to formulate monetary policy, requiring it to weigh more complex factors when making interest rate decisions. As a highly sensitive asset, any changes in monetary policy and the macroeconomic environment could trigger significant fluctuations in Bitcoin's price. In the current market environment, investors need to closely monitor the release of U.S. employment reports and the subsequent developments of Trump's tariff policies to anticipate potential adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, thereby grasping the trends in Bitcoin's price movements.
Intraday operation:
The daily line saw a rise and fall yesterday, closing with a bearish candle, breaking below the 30-day lifeline and the important support level of 103. The 7-day moving average continues to extend downward. In the early morning, it sharply dropped near the 100,000 mark. The short-term bearish trend is clear, and effective support can temporarily be seen at the 95 level. Looking at the 4-hour chart, there was a rise and fall during U.S. trading hours, with a sharp decline starting in the early morning. It has currently stabilized around the 100,000 mark. For intraday operations, a slight rebound can continue to see bearish trends, with key pressure levels to watch at 103-104 above and support levels at 98-99 below.
The cryptocurrency market is volatile; caution is needed when entering the market. This is a personal opinion, not advice, only for sharing.
